Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Toledo at Central Michigan, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Central Michigan 21–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:59 left): Central Michigan converted 3rd & 15, worth 12 points of win probability to Central Michigan.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 21 |
|---|---|
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Toledo lucky · −30 Central Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 7, Central Michigan wins 3.
- 1 TOL 52 CMU 22
- 2 TOL 33 CMU 10
- 3 TOL 31 CMU 14
- 4 TOL 24 CMU 10
- 5 TOL 24 CMU 14
- 6 TOL 24 CMU 17
- 7 TOL 20 CMU 17
- 8 TOL 19 CMU 21
- 9 TOL 5 CMU 13
- 10 TOL 6 CMU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 70% of them, Central Michigan 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 29.6% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 4.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Toledo 8 for 70 yards, Central Michigan 6 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:09 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:19 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +1% CMU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Central Michigan, 8 yards | +1% TOL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:43 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +4% CMU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 7:10 | Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:21 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CMU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:59 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TOL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TOL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 14:59 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards | +8% CMU +2.5 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | Illegal Formation on Central Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +10% TOL +2.5 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Central Michigan, 9 yards | +3% TOL +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:41 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +1% TOL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% CMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Central Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:48 | Toledo converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% TOL | TOL: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 8:07 | Toledo converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +6% TOL | TOL: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:26 | Toledo fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% TOL | TOL: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 5:26 | Central Michigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CMU | CMU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 3:59 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +12% CMU | CMU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 2:00 | Central Michigan was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +9% TOL | CMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:59 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% CMU | CMU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 13:31 | Illegal Formation on Central Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +10% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 100% · Central Michigan 0%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 18
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Central Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 18.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 70% · Central Michigan 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Toledo · 
Central Michigan
More from Week 14 2025
- Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan WMU 31–21 · replay 48% for the winner
- Kent State at Northern Illinois KENT 35–31 · replay 56% for the winner
- Ohio at Buffalo OHIO 31–26 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ball State at Miami (OH) M-OH 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Massachusetts BGSU 45–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner