Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Ohio at Buffalo, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat Buffalo 31–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 31 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bulls | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Ohio lucky · −37 Buffalo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 6, Buffalo wins 4.
- 1 OHIO 49 BUF 14
- 2 OHIO 41 BUF 17
- 3 OHIO 37 BUF 20
- 4 OHIO 49 BUF 38
- 5 OHIO 49 BUF 41
- 6 OHIO 38 BUF 35
- 7 OHIO 28 BUF 31
- 8 OHIO 17 BUF 25
- 9 OHIO 21 BUF 35
- 10 OHIO 7 BUF 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 63% of them, Buffalo 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 25.9% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 9.9% |
| Buffalo by 17+ | 9.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Dellenbach, 35 yds missed · 80% expected
- D. Dellenbach, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Ohio 5 for 40 yards, Buffalo 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards | +2% OHIO +1.2 pts |
| Q1 4:30 | Illegal Forward Pass on Ohio, 5 yards | 0% BUF +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:01 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:38 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards | +1% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards | 0% OHIO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +1.7 pts |
| Q4 7:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio, 15 yards | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Buffalo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:44 | Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOhio fumbled and Buffalo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% BUF | BUF: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:49 | Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedOhio converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% OHIO | BUF: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 8:02 | Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedOhio converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedBuffalo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:30 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on Ohio, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +2% BUF | OHIO: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:20 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 12:10 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedOhio converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 12:34 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedOhio converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:29 | Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedBuffalo converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% OHIO | BUF: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 92% · Buffalo 8%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 5
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Buffalo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 63% · Buffalo 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Ohio · 
Buffalo
More from Week 14 2025
- Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan WMU 31–21 · replay 48% for the winner
- Kent State at Northern Illinois KENT 35–31 · replay 56% for the winner
- Toledo at Central Michigan TOL 21–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Ball State at Miami (OH) M-OH 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Massachusetts BGSU 45–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner