MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Buffalo Bulls: luck and expected wins

Buffalo is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 28th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.

2026, game by game

How often Buffalo wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UAlbany	W 21–17	82%	+18
Week 2	@ Florida International	L 20–33	5%	−5
Week 3	@ Penn State	L 13–55	0%	0
Week 4	vs Robert Morris	W 31–28	63%	+37

Wk 1 +18 vs UALB

Wk 2 −5 @ FIU

Wk 3 0 @ PSU

Wk 4 +37 vs RMU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Buffalo win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Western Michigan	Western Michigan by 15.8	16%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Toledo	Toledo by 29.0	4%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Massachusetts	Massachusetts by 6.2	35%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Bowling Green	Buffalo by 2.0	55%
Week 10 · Nov 3	at Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) by 17.7	15%
Week 11 · Nov 11	at Ball State	Ball State by 3.4	42%
Week 12 · Nov 18	vs Central Michigan	Central Michigan by 2.7	44%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at Akron	Akron by 6.0	36%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Buffalo’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.06	+12.6
Fumble bounces	−0.11	−9.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Buffalo takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	@ Massachusetts	W 28–21	43%	+57
2026 Week 4	vs Robert Morris	W 31–28	63%	+37
2025 Week 6	vs Eastern Michigan	W 31–30	68%	+32
2025 Week 3	@ Kent State	W 31–28	80%	+20
2026 Week 1	vs UAlbany	W 21–17	82%	+18

Unluckiest losses

Losses Buffalo would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	vs Troy	L 17–21	70%	−70
2025 Week 9	vs Akron	L 16–24	70%	−70
2025 Week 14	vs Ohio	L 26–31	37%	−37
2025 Week 5	vs UConn	L 17–20	29%	−29
2025 Week 13	vs Miami (OH)	L 20–37	20%	−20

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	6.3	−1.3	3–4	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Minnesota	L 10–23	1%	−1
Week 2	vs Saint Francis	W 45–6	100%	0
Week 3	@ Kent State	W 31–28	80%	+20
Week 4	vs Troy	L 17–21	70%	−70
Week 5	vs UConn	L 17–20	29%	−29
Week 6	vs Eastern Michigan	W 31–30	68%	+32
Week 8	@ Massachusetts	W 28–21	43%	+57
Week 9	vs Akron	L 16–24	70%	−70
Week 10	@ Bowling Green	W 28–3	99%	+1
Week 12	@ Central Michigan	L 19–38	13%	−13
Week 13	vs Miami (OH)	L 20–37	20%	−20
Week 14	vs Ohio	L 26–31	37%	−37