luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 19, 2025

Miami (OH) at Buffalo, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Miami (OH) beat Buffalo 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami (OH) wins 8 of 10. Buffalo had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Buffalo.

Before kickoff Miami (OH) was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:24 left): Miami (OH) was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Buffalo.

Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks 37
Buffalo Bulls 20

November 19, 2025 · UB Stadium · Closing line: Miami (OH) −2.5

Luck index +20 Miami (OH) about even · −20 Buffalo

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 8, Buffalo wins 2.

  1. 1 M-OH 45 BUF 7
  2. 2 M-OH 38 BUF 13
  3. 3 M-OH 28 BUF 7
  4. 4 M-OH 28 BUF 10
  5. 5 M-OH 37 BUF 23
  6. 6 M-OH 21 BUF 10
  7. 7 M-OH 33 BUF 26
  8. 8 M-OH 10 BUF 7
  9. 9 M-OH 17 BUF 21
  10. 10 M-OH 7 BUF 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami (OH) wins 80% of them, Buffalo 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami (OH) by 17+42.4%
Miami (OH) by 9–1619.6%
Miami (OH) by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation1.5%
Buffalo by 1–89.9%
Buffalo by 9–166.0%
Buffalo by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to Buffalo: the final margin was Miami (OH) by 17, without the luck Miami (OH) by 22.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Howes, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 49 yds made · 60% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 42 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Howes, 47 yds made · 60% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 37 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 49 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Miami (OH) 4 for 25 yards, Buffalo 8 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:55 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +1.1 pts
Q1 9:15 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.7 pts
Q1 7:45 Holding on Buffalo, 9 yards +1% M-OH +0.6 pts
Q2 13:35 Offside on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 11:55 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +0.8 pts
Q2 7:32 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.3 pts
Q2 3:16 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 1:43 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 12:49 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q4 12:02 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.6 pts
Q4 8:49 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.4 pts
Q4 2:45 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% M-OH +0.4 pts

When it happened

Buffalo’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Buffalo was ahead in it, below while Miami (OH) was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:52 Buffalo converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% BUF BUF: Field goal
2 Q2 9:39 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% M-OH M-OH: Punt
3 Q2 0:13 Buffalo converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:01 Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% BUF M-OH: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 10:24 Miami (OH) was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% BUF M-OH: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:50 J. Howes made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +5% BUF BUF: Punt
7 Q3 4:50 Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% M-OH BUF: Punt
8 Q3 3:26 Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% BUF M-OH: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami (OH) 100% · Buffalo 0%

Final margin
Miami (OH) by 17
Luck in points
5.8 for Buffalo
Luck-adjusted margin
Miami (OH) by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
Miami (OH) 80% · Buffalo 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Miami (OH) · Buffalo

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