Week 13 2025 · November 18, 2025
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Northern Illinois 35–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 35 |
|---|---|
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Western Michigan about even · 0 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 10, Northern Illinois wins 0.
- 1 WMU 63 NIU 0
- 2 WMU 58 NIU 3
- 3 WMU 52 NIU 0
- 4 WMU 48 NIU 0
- 5 WMU 45 NIU 0
- 6 WMU 49 NIU 7
- 7 WMU 45 NIU 7
- 8 WMU 44 NIU 10
- 9 WMU 33 NIU 3
- 10 WMU 45 NIU 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 100% of them, Northern Illinois 0%. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 97.7% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Glass, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- A. Glass, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Western Michigan 3 for 17 yards, Northern Illinois 2 for 19 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:14 | Holding on Western Michigan, 7 yards | +1% NIU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:54 | Illegal Formation on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:16 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NIU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:16 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 14 yards | +1% WMU +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Northern Illinois’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:22 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +3% WMU | NIU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:21 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% NIU | NIU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:13 | A. Glass made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +3% WMU | NIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 7:15 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% NIU | WMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:10 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% NIU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 0:28 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% NIU | WMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 13:18 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% NIU | NIU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 2:26 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% WMU | NIU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 100% · Northern Illinois 0%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 16
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 16.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 100% · Northern Illinois 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Northern Illinois
More from Week 13 2025
- Akron at Bowling Green AKR 19–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Kent State CMU 28–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Buffalo M-OH 37–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Ohio OHIO 42–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Ball State at Toledo TOL 38–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner