luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 18, 2025

Akron at Bowling Green, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Akron beat Bowling Green 19–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Bowling Green had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Bowling Green.

Before kickoff Bowling Green was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:30 left): Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Akron.

Final

Akron Zips 19
Bowling Green Falcons 16

November 18, 2025 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Closing line: Bowling Green −2.5

Luck index +36 Akron lucky · −36 Bowling Green

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Akron wins 6, Bowling Green wins 4.

  1. 1 AKR 38 BGSU 10
  2. 2 AKR 21 BGSU 0
  3. 3 AKR 21 BGSU 6
  4. 4 AKR 17 BGSU 6
  5. 5 AKR 20 BGSU 13
  6. 6 AKR 6 BGSU 3
  7. 7 AKR 10 BGSU 13
  8. 8 AKR 21 BGSU 27
  9. 9 AKR 17 BGSU 28
  10. 10 AKR 3 BGSU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Akron wins 64% of them, Bowling Green 36%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Akron by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Akron by 17+22.6%
Akron by 9–1619.5%
Akron by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation5.4%
Bowling Green by 1–815.8%
Bowling Green by 9–169.8%
Bowling Green by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to Bowling Green: the final margin was Akron by 3, without the luck Akron by 7.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Kleather, 28 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Schramm, 39 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Kleather, 28 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Kleather, 59 yds missed · 42% expected
  • M. Schramm, 37 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Schramm, 48 yds made · 59% expected
  • M. Schramm, 30 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Kleather, 31 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Akron 3 for 15 yards, Bowling Green 6 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:40 False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BGSU +0.7 pts
Q1 2:52 Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards +5% AKR +2.2 pts
Q1 2:16 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 15 yards +4% AKR +1.6 pts
Q2 2:38 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards +3% AKR +1.1 pts
Q3 8:55 Offside on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BGSU +1.7 pts
Q3 7:07 Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AKR +0.7 pts
Q3 0:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 15 yards +6% AKR +1.6 pts
Q4 2:27 False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BGSU +0.3 pts
Q4 0:49 Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 15 yards +2% AKR +0.4 pts

When it happened

Bowling Green’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Bowling Green was ahead in it, below while Akron was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:42 Akron fumbled and Bowling Green recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BGSU AKR: Punt
2 Q2 9:53 Akron converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% AKR AKR: Punt
3 Q3 15:00 Akron converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% AKR AKR: Field goal
4 Q3 7:07 Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedDelay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% AKR BGSU: Punt
5 Q3 3:53 Bowling Green converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% BGSU BGSU: Punt
6 Q4 9:15 Bowling Green converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% BGSU BGSU: Field goal
7 Q4 7:30 Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% AKR BGSU: Field goal
8 Q4 7:05 Bowling Green converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% BGSU BGSU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Akron 84% · Bowling Green 16%

Final margin
Akron by 3
Luck in points
4.2 for Bowling Green
Luck-adjusted margin
Akron by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Akron 64% · Bowling Green 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Akron · Bowling Green

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