MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Akron Zips: luck and expected wins

Akron is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 37th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Akron wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Wake Forest	L 16–38	8%	−8
Week 2	vs Robert Morris	W 45–10	99%	+1
Week 3	@ Minnesota	L 7–41	0%	0
Week 4	vs UNLV	L 10–38	29%	−29

Wk 1 −8 @ WAKE

Wk 2 +1 vs RMU

Wk 3 0 @ MINN

Wk 4 −29 vs UNLV

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Akron win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Central Michigan	Central Michigan by 6.2	35%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Eastern Michigan	Akron by 3.7	59%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) by 14.9	18%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Kent State	Kent State by 1.1	47%
Week 10 · Nov 3	vs Ohio	Ohio by 8.0	32%
Week 11 · Nov 10	vs Western Michigan	Western Michigan by 12.9	22%
Week 12 · Nov 18	at Massachusetts	Massachusetts by 9.7	28%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Buffalo	Akron by 6.0	64%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Akron’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	−0.03	−10.7
Kicks	−0.03	−2.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Akron takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	@ Buffalo	W 24–16	30%	+70
2025 Week 13	@ Bowling Green	W 19–16	64%	+36
2025 Week 6	vs Central Michigan	W 28–22	76%	+24
2026 Week 2	vs Robert Morris	W 45–10	99%	+1
2025 Week 4	vs Duquesne	W 51–7	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Akron would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 12	vs Kent State	L 35–42	57%	−57
2025 Week 8	@ Ball State	L 28–42	49%	−49
2025 Week 3	@ UAB	L 28–31	31%	−31
2026 Week 4	vs UNLV	L 10–38	29%	−29
2025 Week 7	vs Miami (OH)	L 7–20	20%	−20

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	5.4	−0.4	3–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Wyoming	L 0–10	9%	−9
Week 2	@ Nebraska	L 0–68	0%	0
Week 3	@ UAB	L 28–31	31%	−31
Week 4	vs Duquesne	W 51–7	100%	0
Week 5	@ Toledo	L 3–45	0%	0
Week 6	vs Central Michigan	W 28–22	76%	+24
Week 7	vs Miami (OH)	L 7–20	20%	−20
Week 8	@ Ball State	L 28–42	49%	−49
Week 9	@ Buffalo	W 24–16	30%	+70
Week 11	vs Massachusetts	W 44–10	100%	0
Week 12	vs Kent State	L 35–42	57%	−57
Week 13	@ Bowling Green	W 19–16	64%	+36