MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Kent State Golden Flashes: luck and expected wins

Kent State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 68th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Kent State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ South Carolina	L 0–57	0%	0
Week 2	vs Wofford	W 36–15	99%	+1
Week 3	@ Ohio State	L 3–59	0%	0
Week 4	vs Ball State	W 26–13	90%	+10

Wk 1 0 @ SC

Wk 2 +1 vs WOF

Wk 3 0 @ OSU

Wk 4 +10 vs BALL

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Kent State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Ohio	Ohio by 10.0	26%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Western Michigan	Western Michigan by 21.3	9%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at South Florida	South Florida by 27.9	4%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Akron	Kent State by 1.1	53%
Week 9 · Oct 30	at Sacramento State	Kent State by 1.0	52%
Week 11 · Nov 10	at Bowling Green	Bowling Green by 3.5	42%
Week 12 · Nov 17	vs Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) by 10.6	27%
Week 13 · Nov 24	at Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan by 4.6	39%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Kent State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.20	+8.0
Pre-snap flags	+0.02	−4.7
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−5.5
Kicks	−0.08	−2.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Kent State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs Bowling Green	W 24–21	38%	+62
2025 Week 12	@ Akron	W 42–35	43%	+57
2025 Week 14	@ Northern Illinois	W 35–31	56%	+44
2025 Week 1	vs Merrimack	W 21–17	63%	+37
2026 Week 4	vs Ball State	W 26–13	90%	+10

Unluckiest losses

Losses Kent State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ Ball State	L 13–17	60%	−60
2025 Week 13	vs Central Michigan	L 16–28	35%	−35
2025 Week 3	vs Buffalo	L 28–31	20%	−20
2025 Week 6	@ Oklahoma	L 0–44	1%	−1
2025 Week 8	@ Toledo	L 10–45	1%	−1

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	4.2	+0.8	4–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Merrimack	W 21–17	63%	+37
Week 2	@ Texas Tech	L 14–62	0%	0
Week 3	vs Buffalo	L 28–31	20%	−20
Week 4	@ Florida State	L 10–66	0%	0
Week 6	@ Oklahoma	L 0–44	1%	−1
Week 7	vs Massachusetts	W 42–6	100%	0
Week 8	@ Toledo	L 10–45	1%	−1
Week 9	vs Bowling Green	W 24–21	38%	+62
Week 11	@ Ball State	L 13–17	60%	−60
Week 12	@ Akron	W 42–35	43%	+57
Week 13	vs Central Michigan	L 16–28	35%	−35
Week 14	@ Northern Illinois	W 35–31	56%	+44