College football · Week 13 2026 · Tuesday, November 24
Kent State vs Eastern Michigan prediction and pick
Our Kent State Golden Flashes at Eastern Michigan Eagles pick: Eastern Michigan by 4.6, 61% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Eastern Michigan by 4.6Kent State win 39%Eastern Michigan win 61%5649423528211470714212835424956← Kent State win byEastern Michigan win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Kent State win
39.2%
Eastern Michigan win
60.8%
Middle 50%: Kent State by 7 to Eastern Michigan by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Kent State by 24 to Eastern Michigan by 33
90%
Middle 95%: Kent State by 28 to Eastern Michigan by 38
95%
Exactly Eastern Michigan by 3
6.5%
Exactly Kent State by 3
5.9%
Exactly Eastern Michigan by 7
5.2%
Exactly Kent State by 7
4.2%
Exactly Eastern Michigan by 14
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Kent State by 7 and Eastern Michigan by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Kent State by 24 and Eastern Michigan by 33.
P95
19 in 20 between Kent State by 28 and Eastern Michigan by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Kent State vs Eastern Michigan: questions and answers
Who will win Kent State vs Eastern Michigan?
Our forecast picks Eastern Michigan, with 61% to win; Kent State win 39% of the time.
What’s the spread for Kent State vs Eastern Michigan?
Our spread: Eastern Michigan −4.6. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Kent State vs Eastern Michigan?
Tuesday, November 24, 2026, at 7:00 pm ET, at Rynearson Stadium.
Kent State at 
Eastern Michigan
