MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Eastern Michigan Eagles: luck and expected wins

Eastern Michigan is 2–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 39th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Eastern Michigan wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Sacramento State	W 28–17	96%	+4
Week 1	vs San José State	L 21–27	35%	−35
Week 2	@ Michigan State	L 7–35	3%	−3
Week 3	@ Wisconsin	L 10–54	2%	−2
Week 4	vs Lindenwood	W 29–3	98%	+2

Wk 1 +4 vs SAC

Wk 1 −35 vs SJSU

Wk 2 −3 @ MSU

Wk 3 −2 @ WIS

Wk 4 +2 vs LIN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Eastern Michigan win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Massachusetts	Massachusetts by 10.3	26%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Akron	Akron by 3.7	41%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Toledo	Toledo by 20.4	10%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Ohio	Ohio by 14.8	18%
Week 10 · Nov 4	vs Central Michigan	Central Michigan by 3.4	42%
Week 12 · Nov 17	at Western Michigan	Western Michigan by 19.8	12%
Week 13 · Nov 24	vs Kent State	Eastern Michigan by 4.6	61%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Eastern Michigan’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.31	+8.0
Fumble bounces	+0.09	+2.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.09	+2.2
Kicks	−0.10	−12.4

Luckiest wins

Wins Eastern Michigan takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	vs Bowling Green	W 27–21	26%	+74
2025 Week 4	vs Louisiana	W 34–31	42%	+58
2025 Week 7	vs Northern Illinois	W 16–10	47%	+53
2025 Week 12	@ Ball State	W 24–9	82%	+18
2026 Week 1	vs Sacramento State	W 28–17	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Eastern Michigan would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	vs Western Michigan	L 21–31	52%	−52
2026 Week 1	vs San José State	L 21–27	35%	−35
2025 Week 6	@ Buffalo	L 30–31	32%	−32
2025 Week 9	vs Ohio	L 21–28	23%	−23
2025 Week 2	vs Long Island University	L 23–28	22%	−22

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	3.6	+0.4	3–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texas State	L 27–52	5%	−5
Week 2	vs Long Island University	L 23–28	22%	−22
Week 3	@ Kentucky	L 23–48	10%	−10
Week 4	vs Louisiana	W 34–31	42%	+58
Week 5	@ Central Michigan	L 13–24	10%	−10
Week 6	@ Buffalo	L 30–31	32%	−32
Week 7	vs Northern Illinois	W 16–10	47%	+53
Week 8	@ Miami (OH)	L 30–44	12%	−12
Week 9	vs Ohio	L 21–28	23%	−23
Week 11	vs Bowling Green	W 27–21	26%	+74
Week 12	@ Ball State	W 24–9	82%	+18
Week 14	vs Western Michigan	L 21–31	52%	−52