luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Eastern Michigan beat Bowling Green 27–21, but the replays lean toward Bowling Green: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 28 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Bowling Green it would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff Eastern Michigan was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:57 left): Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 12, worth 12 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Final

Bowling Green Falcons 21
Eastern Michigan Eagles 27

November 8, 2025 · Rynearson Stadium · Closing line: Eastern Michigan −3

Luck index +74 Eastern Michigan very lucky · −74 Bowling Green

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 7, Eastern Michigan wins 3.

  1. 1 BGSU 37 EMU 6
  2. 2 BGSU 34 EMU 10
  3. 3 BGSU 31 EMU 13
  4. 4 BGSU 38 EMU 24
  5. 5 BGSU 24 EMU 14
  6. 6 BGSU 27 EMU 20
  7. 7 BGSU 23 EMU 20
  8. 8 BGSU 21 EMU 24
  9. 9 BGSU 17 EMU 24
  10. 10 BGSU 24 EMU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Eastern Michigan won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Bowling Green it would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

31 points apart for Eastern Michigan: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bowling Green offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.01 better by 0.03
Bowling Green defenseEPA per play allowed +0.12 +0.04 worse by 0.08
Eastern Michigan offenseEPA per play gained +0.12 +0.09 better by 0.04
Eastern Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.13 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bowling Green wins 74% of them, Eastern Michigan 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eastern Michigan by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bowling Green by 17+30.4%
Bowling Green by 9–1619.3%
Bowling Green by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation5.0%
Eastern Michigan by 1–814.0%
Eastern Michigan by 9–166.8%
Eastern Michigan by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to Eastern Michigan: the final margin was Eastern Michigan by 6, without the luck Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Kessinger, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Kessinger, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
  • R. Kessinger, 44 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bowling Green 9 for 103 yards, Eastern Michigan 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:21 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards +2% EMU +1.2 pts
Q1 8:41 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards 0% EMU +1.3 pts
Q1 5:59 Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards +2% EMU +0.8 pts
Q1 5:43 Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% EMU +0.9 pts
Q1 4:05 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BGSU +3.4 pts
Q2 8:48 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards +3% BGSU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:46 Roughing the Passer on Bowling Green, 15 yards +4% EMU +2.0 pts
Q2 4:36 Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards +5% BGSU +2.0 pts
Q2 0:58 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BGSU +0.2 pts
Q3 12:19 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards +2% EMU +0.6 pts
Q3 9:20 Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards +5% EMU +1.6 pts
Q3 9:16 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BGSU +0.8 pts
Q3 8:36 Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards +5% EMU +1.7 pts
Q3 6:22 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BGSU +0.5 pts
Q3 1:58 Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 8 yards +3% EMU +0.9 pts

When it happened

Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Eastern Michigan was ahead in it, below while Bowling Green was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:43 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% EMU EMU: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:05 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BGSU BGSU: Punt
3 Q3 12:57 Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% BGSU EMU: Punt
4 Q3 8:36 Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% EMU EMU: End of half
5 Q3 5:57 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% EMU EMU: Punt
6 Q4 14:12 Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +6% EMU BGSU: Punt
7 Q4 2:59 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% EMU EMU: Field goal
8 Q4 1:54 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% EMU EMU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bowling Green 39% · Eastern Michigan 61%

Final margin
Eastern Michigan by 6
Luck in points
4.5 for Eastern Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin
Eastern Michigan by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Bowling Green 74% · Eastern Michigan 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Bowling Green · Eastern Michigan

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