luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 4, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Miami (OH) at Ohio, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Ohio beat Miami (OH) 24–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:15 left): Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to Ohio.

Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks 20
Ohio Bobcats 24

November 4, 2025 · Peden Stadium · Closing line: Ohio −2.5

Luck index +40 Ohio lucky · −40 Miami (OH)

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 4, Ohio wins 6.

  1. 1 M-OH 31 OHIO 10
  2. 2 M-OH 20 OHIO 7
  3. 3 M-OH 21 OHIO 14
  4. 4 M-OH 13 OHIO 10
  5. 5 M-OH 24 OHIO 27
  6. 6 M-OH 24 OHIO 28
  7. 7 M-OH 13 OHIO 20
  8. 8 M-OH 13 OHIO 24
  9. 9 M-OH 17 OHIO 31
  10. 10 M-OH 7 OHIO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami (OH) wins 40% of them, Ohio 60%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami (OH) by 17+6.7%
Miami (OH) by 9–1610.5%
Miami (OH) by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation5.5%
Ohio by 1–824.2%
Ohio by 9–1617.7%
Ohio by 17+17.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to Miami (OH): the final margin was Ohio by 4, without the luck Ohio by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Miami (OH) 5 for 45 yards, Ohio 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q2 14:10 Illegal Formation on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OHIO +0.3 pts
Q3 4:37 Pass Interference on Ohio, 15 yards +8% M-OH +2.4 pts
Q3 4:37 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards +4% OHIO +1.1 pts
Q3 4:37 Delay of Game on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% OHIO +0.7 pts
Q4 13:29 Personal Foul on Ohio, 6 yards 0% M-OH +1.1 pts
Q4 7:18 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards +5% OHIO +1.1 pts
Q4 5:19 Holding on Ohio, 10 yards +11% M-OH +1.7 pts
Q4 5:19 Face Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yards +15% OHIO +2.4 pts

When it happened

Ohio’s chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ohio was ahead in it, below while Miami (OH) was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:59 Ohio converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% OHIO OHIO: End of half
2 Q3 15:00 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedMiami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% M-OH M-OH: Punt
3 Q3 11:53 Ohio converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% OHIO OHIO: Turnover
4 Q3 10:22 Ohio fumbled and Miami (OH) recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% M-OH OHIO: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:15 Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% OHIO M-OH: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:29 Miami (OH) converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedOhio converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedOhio was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% OHIO M-OH: Punt
7 Q4 7:18 Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedHolding on Miami (OH), 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% OHIO M-OH: Punt
8 Q4 5:19 Holding on Ohio, 10 yardsJudgment callsFace Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% OHIO M-OH: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami (OH) 14% · Ohio 86%

Final margin
Ohio by 4
Luck in points
1.0 for Miami (OH)
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Miami (OH) 40% · Ohio 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Miami (OH) · Ohio

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