Week 11 2025 · November 5, 2025
Kent State at Ball State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Ball State beat Kent State 17–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Ball State wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Ball State.
Before kickoff Ball State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:45 left): Kent State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to Ball State.
Final
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 13 |
|---|---|
 Ball State Cardinals | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Ball State lucky · −60 Kent State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 6, Ball State wins 4.
- 1 KENT 21 BALL 0
- 2 KENT 35 BALL 20
- 3 KENT 26 BALL 14
- 4 KENT 10 BALL 0
- 5 KENT 13 BALL 7
- 6 KENT 3 BALL 0
- 7 KENT 7 BALL 10
- 8 KENT 2 BALL 7
- 9 KENT 3 BALL 12
- 10 KENT 7 BALL 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 60% of them, Ball State 40%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ball State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 14.5% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| Level after regulation | 6.6% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| Ball State by 17+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Pippin, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- W. Hryszko, 40 yds missed · 71% expected
- W. Hryszko, 39 yds made · 72% expected
- D. Pippin, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- W. Hryszko, 28 yds made · 87% expected
- D. Pippin, 50 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Kent State 9 for 73 yards, Ball State 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kent State, 13 yards | +3% BALL +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:22 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% KENT +2.4 pts |
| Q1 4:22 | Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% BALL +3.5 pts |
| Q2 7:52 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BALL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BALL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:47 | Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BALL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:32 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BALL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kent State, 15 yards | +1% KENT +1.1 pts |
| Q3 3:07 | Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% BALL +2.7 pts |
| Q3 1:50 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ball State, 15 yards | +3% KENT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Illegal Formation on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BALL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:11 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | +9% KENT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | Personal Foul on Kent State, 15 yards | +9% BALL +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Ball State’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 3:07 | Offside on Kent State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% BALL | BALL: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q3 0:35 | D. Pippin missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +9% KENT | BALL: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:11 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% KENT | KENT: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 7:02 | Personal Foul on Kent State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% BALL | BALL: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 5:11 | D. Pippin missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +13% KENT | BALL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:45 | Kent State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +24% BALL | KENT: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:53 | Ball State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +18% BALL | BALL: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:14 | Kent State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +10% BALL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 82% · Ball State 18%
- Final margin
- Ball State by 4
- Luck in points
- 11.3 for Ball State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kent State by 7.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 60% · Ball State 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Kent State · 
Ball State
More from Week 11 2025
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Ohio OHIO 24–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Akron AKR 44–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Toledo TOL 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner