luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 5, 2025

Northern Illinois at Toledo, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Toledo beat Northern Illinois 42–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Toledo was an 83% favorite.

Final

Northern Illinois Huskies 3
Toledo Rockets 42

November 5, 2025 · Glass Bowl · Closing line: Toledo −14.5

Luck index 0 Toledo about even · 0 Northern Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 0, Toledo wins 10.

  1. 1 NIU 0 TOL 14
  2. 2 NIU 7 TOL 29
  3. 3 NIU 3 TOL 31
  4. 4 NIU 3 TOL 34
  5. 5 NIU 3 TOL 38
  6. 6 NIU 10 TOL 48
  7. 7 NIU 14 TOL 56
  8. 8 NIU 3 TOL 49
  9. 9 NIU 0 TOL 52
  10. 10 NIU 0 TOL 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northern Illinois wins 0% of them, Toledo 100%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 39.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northern Illinois by 17+0.0%
Northern Illinois by 9–160.0%
Northern Illinois by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Toledo by 1–80.1%
Toledo by 9–161.2%
Toledo by 17+98.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to Toledo: the final margin was Toledo by 39, without the luck Toledo by 33.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Glass, 50 yds made · 54% expected
  • A. Glass, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
  • D. Cunanan, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Northern Illinois 7 for 74 yards, Toledo 9 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:46 Pass Interference on Toledo, 5 yards +3% NIU +3.9 pts
Q1 7:38 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards +1% TOL +1.3 pts
Q1 5:24 Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NIU +3.8 pts
Q2 6:25 Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% NIU +4.2 pts
Q2 5:57 False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.5 pts
Q2 4:58 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOL 0.0 pts
Q2 0:57 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards 0% TOL +0.5 pts
Q3 10:11 Pass Interference on Toledo, 9 yards, wiping out the play 0% NIU +5.8 pts
Q3 3:08 False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.3 pts
Q3 3:03 Holding on Toledo, 10 yards 0% NIU +1.8 pts
Q4 13:37 Intentional Grounding on Northern Illinois, 14 yards 0% TOL +0.9 pts
Q4 12:36 Illegal Formation on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOL +0.3 pts
Q4 9:55 Delay of Game on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOL +0.3 pts
Q4 7:05 Illegal Shift on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.6 pts
Q4 4:13 Chop Block on Northern Illinois, 15 yards 0% TOL +1.2 pts
Q4 0:46 Personal Foul on Toledo, 13 yards 0% NIU +1.3 pts

When it happened

Toledo’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Toledo was ahead in it, below while Northern Illinois was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:40 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +2% NIU NIU: Field goal
2 Q1 10:46 Pass Interference on Toledo, 5 yardsJudgment calls +3% NIU NIU: Field goal
3 Q1 7:55 Toledo converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +2% TOL TOL: Punt
4 Q1 5:24 Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NIU NIU: Punt
5 Q1 1:09 Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +2% NIU TOL: Punt
6 Q2 11:33 Toledo converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +2% TOL TOL: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:25 Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% NIU NIU: Punt
8 Q2 5:18 Toledo converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +2% TOL TOL: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northern Illinois 0% · Toledo 100%

Final margin
Toledo by 39
Luck in points
5.3 for Toledo
Luck-adjusted margin
Toledo by 33.7
Replay with same day's form
Northern Illinois 0% · Toledo 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Northern Illinois · Toledo

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