Week 11 2025 · November 4, 2025
Massachusetts at Akron, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Akron beat Massachusetts 44–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Akron wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Akron was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 10 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Akron about even · 0 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 0, Akron wins 10.
- 1 MASS 3 AKR 17
- 2 MASS 3 AKR 27
- 3 MASS 10 AKR 38
- 4 MASS 0 AKR 31
- 5 MASS 0 AKR 35
- 6 MASS 0 AKR 38
- 7 MASS 0 AKR 41
- 8 MASS 3 AKR 47
- 9 MASS 0 AKR 48
- 10 MASS 0 AKR 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 0% of them, Akron 100%. The line is what actually happened: Akron by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| Akron by 17+ | 94.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 55 yds made · 45% expected
- M. Schramm, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Massachusetts 6 for 60 yards, Akron 7 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:01 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:47 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards | +1% MASS +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:40 | Personal Foul on Akron, 14 yards | 0% MASS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:36 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% AKR +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:53 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% AKR +2.0 pts |
| Q3 5:37 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +0.2 pts |
| Q3 5:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% AKR +1.9 pts |
| Q3 2:11 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:31 | Roughing the Passer on Akron, 15 yards | 0% MASS +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:25 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | 0% AKR +2.0 pts |
| Q3 0:20 | Personal Foul on Akron, 15 yards | 0% MASS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:04 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:20 | Ineligible Downfield on Akron, 5 yards | 0% MASS +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:53 | Massachusetts fumbled and Akron recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% AKR | MASS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 14:11 | Akron converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% AKR | AKR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:32 | Akron converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:20 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +2% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 0:09 | D. Morris made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 45% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +3% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:28 | Massachusetts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:14 | Massachusetts fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:33 | Massachusetts fumbled and Akron recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by AkronSpecial teams | +3% AKR | MASS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 0% · Akron 100%
- Final margin
- Akron by 34
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for Akron
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Akron by 31.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 0% · Akron 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Akron
More from Week 11 2025
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Kent State at Ball State BALL 17–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Ohio OHIO 24–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Toledo TOL 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner