luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · November 4, 2025–November 8, 2025

Week 11 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

18 upsets in Week 11 2025. The biggest: Sam Houston beat Oregon State 21–17 as 9% underdogs, and got lucky. 11 of 52 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Southern Miss beat Arkansas State 27–21 in a game it wins 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 11 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 9 of 18 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Sam Houston 21–17 @ Oregon State 9% 2% Lucky
California 29–26 @ Louisville 12% 74% Deserved
Wisconsin 13–10 vs Washington 25% 23% Lucky
Missouri State 21–17 @ Liberty 31% 76% Deserved
UConn 37–34 vs Duke 31% 47% Coin flip
Iowa State 20–17 @ TCU 31% 22% Lucky
Wake Forest 16–9 @ Virginia 32% 22% Lucky
Hawai'i 38–6 vs San Diego State 34% 99% Deserved
Air Force 26–16 @ San José State 35% 5% Lucky
Delaware 25–24 vs Louisiana Tech 36% 25% Lucky
Georgia Southern 25–23 @ App State 39% 82% Deserved
Kentucky 38–7 vs Florida 39% 99% Deserved
Louisiana 42–39 vs Texas State 41% 14% Lucky
Tulane 38–32 @ Memphis 42% 74% Deserved
Rice 24–17 vs UAB 46% 35% Lucky
Houston 30–27 @ UCF 46% 92% Deserved
Florida International 56–30 @ Middle Tennessee 46% 98% Deserved
Nebraska 28–21 @ UCLA 46% 83% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 11 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Sam Houston W 21–17 @ Oregon State 2% +98
2 Air Force W 26–16 @ San José State 5% +95
3 Louisiana W 42–39 vs Texas State 14% +86
4 Iowa State W 20–17 @ TCU 22% +78
5 Wake Forest W 16–9 @ Virginia 22% +78
6 Wisconsin W 13–10 vs Washington 23% +77
7 Delaware W 25–24 vs Louisiana Tech 25% +75
8 Eastern Michigan W 27–21 vs Bowling Green 26% +74
9 North Carolina W 20–15 vs Stanford 34% +66
10 Rice W 24–17 vs UAB 35% +65
11 Southern Miss W 27–21 @ Arkansas State 38% +62
12 Ball State W 17–13 vs Kent State 40% +60
13 UConn W 37–34 vs Duke 47% +53
14 Army W 14–13 vs Temple 48% +52
15 Indiana W 27–24 @ Penn State 56% +44
16 Ohio W 24–20 vs Miami (OH) 60% +40
17 Kennesaw State W 24–21 @ New Mexico State 61% +39
18 Jacksonville State W 30–27 @ UTEP 65% +35
19 Texas A&M W 38–17 @ Missouri 66% +34
20 Clemson W 24–10 vs Florida State 67% +33
21 James Madison W 35–23 @ Marshall 73% +27
22 Tulane W 38–32 @ Memphis 74% +26
23 California W 29–26 @ Louisville 74% +26
24 Arizona W 24–20 vs Kansas 74% +26
25 Missouri State W 21–17 @ Liberty 76% +24
26 Florida Atlantic W 40–21 vs Tulsa 80% +20
27 Oregon W 18–16 @ Iowa 81% +19
28 Georgia Southern W 25–23 @ App State 82% +18
29 Nebraska W 28–21 @ UCLA 83% +17
30 Vanderbilt W 45–38 vs Auburn 89% +11
31 West Virginia W 29–22 vs Colorado 90% +10
32 Alabama W 20–9 vs LSU 91% +9
33 East Carolina W 48–22 vs Charlotte 91% +9
34 Houston W 30–27 @ UCF 92% +8
35 Coastal Carolina W 40–27 vs Georgia State 92% +8
36 Ohio State W 34–10 @ Purdue 94% +6
37 USC W 38–17 vs Northwestern 94% +6
38 Texas Tech W 29–7 vs BYU 95% +5
39 Rutgers W 35–20 vs Maryland 96% +4
40 SMU W 45–13 @ Boston College 96% +4
41 South Florida W 55–23 vs UTSA 97% +3
42 Florida International W 56–30 @ Middle Tennessee 98% +2
43 Kentucky W 38–7 vs Florida 99% +1
44 Miami W 38–10 vs Syracuse 99% +1
45 Hawai'i W 38–6 vs San Diego State 99% +1
46 Utah State W 51–14 vs Nevada 99% +1
47 Georgia W 41–21 @ Mississippi State 99% +1
48 UNLV W 42–10 @ Colorado State 100% 0
49 Akron W 44–10 vs Massachusetts 100% 0
50 Toledo W 42–3 vs Northern Illinois 100% 0
51 Ole Miss W 49–0 vs The Citadel 100% 0
52 Notre Dame W 49–10 vs Navy 100% 0
53 Massachusetts L 10–44 @ Akron 0% 0
54 Northern Illinois L 3–42 @ Toledo 0% 0
55 Navy L 10–49 @ Notre Dame 0% 0
56 Colorado State L 10–42 vs UNLV 0% 0
57 Mississippi State L 21–41 vs Georgia 1% −1
58 Nevada L 14–51 @ Utah State 1% −1
59 San Diego State L 6–38 @ Hawai'i 1% −1
60 Syracuse L 10–38 @ Miami 1% −1
61 Florida L 7–38 @ Kentucky 1% −1
62 Middle Tennessee L 30–56 vs Florida International 2% −2
63 UTSA L 23–55 @ South Florida 3% −3
64 Boston College L 13–45 vs SMU 4% −4
65 Maryland L 20–35 @ Rutgers 4% −4
66 BYU L 7–29 @ Texas Tech 5% −5
67 Northwestern L 17–38 @ USC 6% −6
68 Purdue L 10–34 vs Ohio State 6% −6
69 Georgia State L 27–40 @ Coastal Carolina 8% −8
70 UCF L 27–30 vs Houston 8% −8
71 Charlotte L 22–48 @ East Carolina 9% −9
72 LSU L 9–20 @ Alabama 9% −9
73 Colorado L 22–29 @ West Virginia 10% −10
74 Auburn L 38–45 @ Vanderbilt 11% −11
75 UCLA L 21–28 vs Nebraska 17% −17
76 App State L 23–25 vs Georgia Southern 18% −18
77 Iowa L 16–18 vs Oregon 19% −19
78 Tulsa L 21–40 @ Florida Atlantic 20% −20
79 Liberty L 17–21 vs Missouri State 24% −24
80 Kansas L 20–24 @ Arizona 26% −26
81 Louisville L 26–29 vs California 26% −26
82 Memphis L 32–38 vs Tulane 26% −26
83 Marshall L 23–35 vs James Madison 27% −27
84 Florida State L 10–24 @ Clemson 33% −33
85 Missouri L 17–38 vs Texas A&M 34% −34
86 UTEP L 27–30 vs Jacksonville State 35% −35
87 New Mexico State L 21–24 vs Kennesaw State 39% −39
88 Miami (OH) L 20–24 @ Ohio 40% −40
89 Penn State L 24–27 vs Indiana 44% −44
90 Temple L 13–14 @ Army 52% −52
91 Duke L 34–37 @ UConn 53% −53
92 Kent State L 13–17 @ Ball State 60% −60
93 Arkansas State L 21–27 vs Southern Miss 62% −62
94 UAB L 17–24 @ Rice 65% −65
95 Stanford L 15–20 @ North Carolina 66% −66
96 Bowling Green L 21–27 @ Eastern Michigan 74% −74
97 Louisiana Tech L 24–25 @ Delaware 75% −75
98 Washington L 10–13 @ Wisconsin 77% −77
99 Virginia L 9–16 vs Wake Forest 78% −78
100 TCU L 17–20 vs Iowa State 78% −78
101 Texas State L 39–42 @ Louisiana 86% −86
102 San José State L 16–26 vs Air Force 95% −95
103 Oregon State L 17–21 vs Sam Houston 98% −98