Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
UNLV at Colorado State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Colorado State 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UNLV wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Colorado State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UNLV it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff UNLV was a 64% favorite.
Final
 UNLV Rebels | 42 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 UNLV about even · 0 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UNLV wins 10, Colorado State wins 0.
- 1 UNLV 66 CSU 3
- 2 UNLV 68 CSU 14
- 3 UNLV 55 CSU 6
- 4 UNLV 48 CSU 3
- 5 UNLV 59 CSU 17
- 6 UNLV 52 CSU 13
- 7 UNLV 50 CSU 16
- 8 UNLV 45 CSU 17
- 9 UNLV 49 CSU 27
- 10 UNLV 17 CSU 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Colorado State
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UNLV it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Colorado State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV offenseEPA per play gained | +0.50 | +0.12 | better by 0.38 |
| UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.16 | +0.09 | better by 0.25 |
| Colorado State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.16 | +0.04 | worse by 0.20 |
| Colorado State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.50 | +0.11 | worse by 0.39 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UNLV wins 100% of them, Colorado State 0%. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UNLV by 17+ | 95.5% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- I. Hankins, 23 yds made · 91% expected
- I. Hankins, 47 yds missed · 58% expected
Penalties: UNLV 9 for 72 yards, Colorado State 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:29 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yards | +3% CSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 6:59 | Personal Foul on Colorado State, 5 yards | +2% CSU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 4:31 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +4% CSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:06 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 13 yards | +2% CSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Holding on UNLV, 7 yards | +1% CSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:39 | False Start on UNLV, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +1.2 pts |
| Q3 5:59 | Personal Foul on Colorado State, 15 yards | +1% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:43 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% CSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 0:16 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:04 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% CSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 7:45 | Delay of Game on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:19 | Illegal Substitution on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:29 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:37 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +3% UNLV | CSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:07 | Colorado State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 8:20 | UNLV converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% UNLV | UNLV: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 4:31 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% CSU | UNLV: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 7:07 | UNLV converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 4:58 | Colorado State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% UNLV | CSU: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 13:05 | I. Hankins missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +4% UNLV | CSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UNLV 100% · Colorado State 0%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 32
- Luck in points
- 15.7 for UNLV
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 16.3
- Replay with same day's form
- UNLV 100% · Colorado State 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
UNLV · 
Colorado State
More from Week 11 2025
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- San Diego State at Hawai'i HAW 38–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Nevada at Utah State USU 51–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner