luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

San Diego State at Hawai'i, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Hawai'i beat San Diego State 38–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Hawai'i wins 10 of 10.

An off day for San Diego State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Hawai'i it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff San Diego State was a 66% favorite.

Final

San Diego State Aztecs 6
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 38

November 8, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Closing line: San Diego State −6.5

Luck index +1 Hawai'i about even · −1 San Diego State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. San Diego State wins 0, Hawai'i wins 10.

  1. 1 SDSU 14 HAW 20
  2. 2 SDSU 2 HAW 16
  3. 3 SDSU 10 HAW 30
  4. 4 SDSU 21 HAW 44
  5. 5 SDSU 10 HAW 36
  6. 6 SDSU 17 HAW 46
  7. 7 SDSU 5 HAW 37
  8. 8 SDSU 7 HAW 44
  9. 9 SDSU 6 HAW 50
  10. 10 SDSU 0 HAW 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for San Diego State

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Hawai'i it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

50 points apart for San Diego State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
San Diego State offenseEPA per play gained −0.40 +0.04 worse by 0.44
San Diego State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.02 worse by 0.21
Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.11 better by 0.12
Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed −0.40 +0.07 better by 0.47

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

San Diego State wins 1% of them, Hawai'i 99%. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
San Diego State by 17+0.0%
San Diego State by 9–160.2%
San Diego State by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
Hawai'i by 1–82.5%
Hawai'i by 9–166.1%
Hawai'i by 17+90.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to Hawai'i: the final margin was Hawai'i by 32, without the luck Hawai'i by 26.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Plascencia, 42 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Plascencia, 43 yds made · 72% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 22 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Plascencia, 50 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: San Diego State 5 for 45 yards, Hawai'i 8 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yards +6% HAW +3.4 pts
Q1 6:37 Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.3 pts
Q1 5:15 False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HAW +0.3 pts
Q2 13:27 Illegal Shift on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.8 pts
Q2 12:33 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards +1% HAW +0.6 pts
Q2 1:37 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SDSU +1.1 pts
Q2 1:19 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDSU +0.1 pts
Q3 8:36 Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +1.2 pts
Q3 7:54 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% HAW +1.8 pts
Q4 9:35 Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDSU +0.8 pts
Q4 9:28 False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.8 pts
Q4 7:46 Delay of Game on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q4 0:51 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards 0% SDSU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Hawai'i’s chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Hawai'i was ahead in it, below while San Diego State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% HAW HAW: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:48 San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +2% HAW SDSU: Punt
3 Q1 3:33 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% HAW HAW: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:42 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% HAW HAW: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:38 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% HAW HAW: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:23 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% HAW HAW: Field goal
7 Q2 3:02 San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% HAW SDSU: Punt
8 Q2 0:02 G. Plascencia missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 7 of 8 from 45+ before +5% HAW SDSU: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

San Diego State 0% · Hawai'i 100%

Final margin
Hawai'i by 32
Luck in points
5.1 for Hawai'i
Luck-adjusted margin
Hawai'i by 26.9
Replay with same day's form
San Diego State 1% · Hawai'i 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · San Diego State · Hawai'i

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