luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Washington at Wisconsin, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Wisconsin beat Washington 13–10, but the replays lean toward Washington: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Wisconsin.

Before kickoff Washington was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:43 left): G. Gross had a 50-yard field goal blocked, worth 13 points of win probability to Wisconsin.

Final

Washington Huskies 10
Wisconsin Badgers 13

November 8, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium · Closing line: Washington −10.5

Luck index +77 Wisconsin very lucky · −77 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 8, Wisconsin wins 2.

  1. 1 WASH 28 WIS 3
  2. 2 WASH 23 WIS 3
  3. 3 WASH 27 WIS 10
  4. 4 WASH 16 WIS 3
  5. 5 WASH 13 WIS 3
  6. 6 WASH 16 WIS 7
  7. 7 WASH 13 WIS 7
  8. 8 WASH 10 WIS 7
  9. 9 WASH 3 WIS 6
  10. 10 WASH 0 WIS 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 77% of them, Wisconsin 23%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wisconsin by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+25.1%
Washington by 9–1625.9%
Washington by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation6.5%
Wisconsin by 1–813.3%
Wisconsin by 9–166.4%
Wisconsin by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to Wisconsin: the final margin was Wisconsin by 3, without the luck Washington by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Vakos, 48 yds missed · 56% expected
  • N. Vakos, 42 yds made · 67% expected
  • G. Gross, 42 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Vakos, 32 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Gross, 50 yds blocked · 53% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 7 for 53 yards, Wisconsin 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:19 Holding on Washington, 10 yards +1% WIS +0.7 pts
Q2 9:49 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WIS +0.4 pts
Q2 3:20 False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WASH +0.6 pts
Q2 1:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards +1% WIS +0.9 pts
Q2 0:18 Ineligible Downfield on Wisconsin, 5 yards 0% WASH +0.3 pts
Q2 0:17 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wisconsin, 15 yards +2% WASH +1.0 pts
Q3 9:17 Illegal Block on Washington, 8 yards +1% WIS +0.5 pts
Q3 7:34 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WIS +0.8 pts
Q3 5:40 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WIS +0.5 pts
Q3 5:29 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WIS +0.4 pts

When it happened

Wisconsin’s chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wisconsin was ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 11:45 Wisconsin converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% WIS WIS: Punt
2 Q4 13:45 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% WIS WASH: Missed field goal
3 Q4 13:05 Washington converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% WASH WASH: Missed field goal
4 Q4 10:43 G. Gross had a 50-yard field goal blockedKicks · 53% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before +13% WIS WASH: Punt
5 Q4 8:55 Wisconsin fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WIS WIS: Punt
6 Q4 7:10 Washington converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% WASH WASH: Punt
7 Q4 5:09 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% WIS WASH: Punt
8 Q4 3:14 Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% WASH WIS: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 69% · Wisconsin 31%

Final margin
Wisconsin by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for Wisconsin
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Washington 77% · Wisconsin 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Washington · Wisconsin

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