luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Indiana at Penn State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Indiana beat Penn State 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Indiana wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Indiana.

Before kickoff Indiana was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:36 left): Indiana converted 3rd & 7, worth 20 points of win probability to Indiana.

Final

Indiana Hoosiers 27
Penn State Nittany Lions 24

November 8, 2025 · Beaver Stadium · Closing line: Indiana −14.5

Luck index +44 Indiana lucky · −44 Penn State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Indiana wins 6, Penn State wins 4.

  1. 1 IU 31 PSU 3
  2. 2 IU 25 PSU 7
  3. 3 IU 35 PSU 21
  4. 4 IU 17 PSU 7
  5. 5 IU 13 PSU 7
  6. 6 IU 20 PSU 17
  7. 7 IU 7 PSU 10
  8. 8 IU 17 PSU 24
  9. 9 IU 10 PSU 23
  10. 10 IU 6 PSU 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Indiana wins 56% of them, Penn State 44%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Indiana by 17+16.8%
Indiana by 9–1618.3%
Indiana by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation1.8%
Penn State by 1–822.7%
Penn State by 9–1611.8%
Penn State by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to Indiana: the final margin was Indiana by 3, without the luck Indiana by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Radicic, 28 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Radicic, 31 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Barker, 36 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Indiana 6 for 23 yards, Penn State 5 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:08 Holding on Penn State, 10 yards +3% IU +1.7 pts
Q2 3:16 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PSU +0.4 pts
Q2 1:09 Pass Interference on Penn State, 12 yards +1% IU +1.0 pts
Q3 8:41 False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IU +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Delay of Game on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PSU +0.5 pts
Q4 14:49 Offside on Indiana, 1 yard · pre-snap +2% IU +0.8 pts
Q4 14:49 Offside on Indiana, 2 yards · pre-snap +2% PSU +0.7 pts
Q4 10:47 False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.9 pts
Q4 6:27 Delay of Game on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PSU +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.2 pts
Q4 0:20 Offside on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PSU +0.3 pts

When it happened

Penn State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Penn State was ahead in it, below while Indiana was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:47 Penn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedPenn State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% PSU PSU: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 Penn State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% PSU PSU: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:08 Indiana converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedIndiana converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedHolding on Penn State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% IU IU: Field goal
4 Q2 1:09 Penn State fumbled and Indiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Pass Interference on Penn State, 12 yardsJudgment calls +4% IU PSU: End of half
5 Q4 10:47 Penn State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedFalse Start on Penn State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% PSU PSU: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:27 Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on Indiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% IU IU: Punt
7 Q4 0:36 Indiana converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +20% IU –
8 Q4 0:20 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedPenn State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Offside on Indiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +14% PSU PSU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Indiana 68% · Penn State 32%

Final margin
Indiana by 3
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Indiana by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Indiana 56% · Penn State 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Indiana · Penn State

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