Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Oregon at Iowa, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Iowa 18–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 61% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:51 left): Iowa converted 4th & 3, worth 36 points of win probability to Oregon.
Final
 Oregon Ducks | 18 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Oregon about even · −19 Iowa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 8, Iowa wins 2.
- 1 ORE 35 IOWA 3
- 2 ORE 35 IOWA 10
- 3 ORE 35 IOWA 14
- 4 ORE 24 IOWA 7
- 5 ORE 24 IOWA 10
- 6 ORE 20 IOWA 10
- 7 ORE 10 IOWA 3
- 8 ORE 21 IOWA 17
- 9 ORE 24 IOWA 27
- 10 ORE 9 IOWA 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 81% of them, Iowa 19%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 35.1% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 22.3% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 5.9% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Sappington, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- A. Sappington, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- D. Stevens, 58 yds made · 44% expected
- A. Sappington, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Oregon 5 for 57 yards, Iowa 1 for 1 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:55 | Illegal Kick on Iowa, 1 yard | 0% ORE +0.1 pts |
| Q1 5:42 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IOWA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:42 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 12 yards | +3% IOWA +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:54 | Personal Foul on Oregon, 15 yards | +5% IOWA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:09 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards | +5% IOWA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:04 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | +3% IOWA +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:55 | Iowa was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedIllegal Kick on Iowa, 1 yardJudgment calls | +5% ORE | IOWA: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 7:15 | Iowa fumbled and Oregon recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ORE | IOWA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 12:39 | D. Stevens made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 44% expected for him, 15 of 23 from 45+ before | +6% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 6:52 | Iowa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +9% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:19 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% ORE | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:33 | Iowa converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +15% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:55 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +26% ORE | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:51 | The game turned hereIowa converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIowa’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +36% ORE | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 50% · Iowa 50%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 2
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 81% · Iowa 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Oregon · 
Iowa
More from Week 11 2025
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Indiana at Penn State IU 27–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Nebraska at UCLA NEB 28–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ohio State at Purdue OSU 34–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Northwestern at USC USC 38–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Maryland at Rutgers RUTG 35–20 · replay 96% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner