Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Maryland at Rutgers, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Rutgers beat Maryland 35–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Rutgers wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Maryland: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Rutgers it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Rutgers was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Maryland Terrapins | 20 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Rutgers about even · −4 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maryland wins 0, Rutgers wins 10.
- 1 MD 28 RUTG 31
- 2 MD 13 RUTG 20
- 3 MD 17 RUTG 28
- 4 MD 14 RUTG 28
- 5 MD 16 RUTG 35
- 6 MD 13 RUTG 35
- 7 MD 7 RUTG 34
- 8 MD 14 RUTG 45
- 9 MD 7 RUTG 41
- 10 MD 7 RUTG 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Maryland
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Rutgers it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Maryland: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.01 | better by 0.14 |
| Maryland defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.07 | worse by 0.27 |
| Rutgers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.10 | better by 0.24 |
| Rutgers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.19 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maryland wins 4% of them, Rutgers 96%. The line is what actually happened: Rutgers by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maryland by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 8.7% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 69.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- S. O'Haire, 44 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Maryland 4 for 40 yards, Rutgers 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:02 | Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yards | +1% RUTG +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:15 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yards | +2% RUTG +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:56 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:36 | Delay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:32 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:53 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +4% MD | RUTG: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:44 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +3% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 8:48 | Maryland converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% MD | MD: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:34 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +6% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 13:13 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +4% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:32 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 4:59 | Maryland was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% RUTG | MD: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 1:29 | Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% MD | RUTG: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maryland 3% · Rutgers 97%
- Final margin
- Rutgers by 15
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Rutgers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rutgers by 10.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Maryland 4% · Rutgers 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Maryland · 
Rutgers
More from Week 11 2025
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Indiana at Penn State IU 27–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Oregon at Iowa ORE 18–16 · replay 81% for the winner
- Nebraska at UCLA NEB 28–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ohio State at Purdue OSU 34–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Northwestern at USC USC 38–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner