Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Nebraska at UCLA, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat UCLA 28–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff UCLA was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 28 |
|---|---|
 UCLA Bruins | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Nebraska about even · −17 UCLA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 8, UCLA wins 2.
- 1 NEB 42 UCLA 12
- 2 NEB 28 UCLA 7
- 3 NEB 21 UCLA 3
- 4 NEB 28 UCLA 14
- 5 NEB 20 UCLA 9
- 6 NEB 16 UCLA 7
- 7 NEB 20 UCLA 14
- 8 NEB 10 UCLA 7
- 9 NEB 14 UCLA 17
- 10 NEB 21 UCLA 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 83% of them, UCLA 17%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 34.9% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Level after regulation | 6.7% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| UCLA by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Nebraska 2 for 25 yards, UCLA 4 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:07 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:08 | Illegal Use of Hands on Nebraska, 15 yards | +1% UCLA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:24 | False Start on UCLA, 6 yards · pre-snap | +3% NEB +2.2 pts |
| Q4 11:33 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 4 yards | 0% NEB +0.2 pts |
| Q4 8:34 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB 0.0 pts |
| Q4 4:47 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | +2% UCLA +0.6 pts |
When it happened
UCLA’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:34 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% NEB | UCLA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:15 | UCLA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:03 | UCLA converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 13:51 | UCLA converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +4% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:22 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% NEB | UCLA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 6:18 | UCLA was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +7% NEB | UCLA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:06 | M. Bhaghani missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 8 of 12 from 45+ before | +4% NEB | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:24 | False Start on UCLA, 6 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% NEB | NEB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 83% · UCLA 17%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Nebraska
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 5.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 83% · UCLA 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Nebraska · 
UCLA
More from Week 11 2025
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Indiana at Penn State IU 27–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Oregon at Iowa ORE 18–16 · replay 81% for the winner
- Ohio State at Purdue OSU 34–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Northwestern at USC USC 38–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Maryland at Rutgers RUTG 35–20 · replay 96% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner