luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 7, 2025

Northwestern at USC, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

USC beat Northwestern 38–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff USC was an 83% favorite.

Final

Northwestern Wildcats 17
USC Trojans 38

November 7, 2025 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: USC −14.5

Luck index +6 USC about even · −6 Northwestern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northwestern wins 1, USC wins 9.

  1. 1 NU 28 USC 20
  2. 2 NU 21 USC 24
  3. 3 NU 13 USC 20
  4. 4 NU 14 USC 24
  5. 5 NU 7 USC 20
  6. 6 NU 16 USC 31
  7. 7 NU 16 USC 34
  8. 8 NU 10 USC 33
  9. 9 NU 3 USC 31
  10. 10 NU 14 USC 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northwestern wins 6% of them, USC 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: USC by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northwestern by 17+0.3%
Northwestern by 9–160.8%
Northwestern by 1–84.3%
Level after regulation0.8%
USC by 1–810.8%
USC by 9–1620.6%
USC by 17+62.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to USC: the final margin was USC by 21, without the luck USC by 15.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Olsen, 33 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Sayeri, 22 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Northwestern 2 for 26 yards, USC 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 6:28 Ineligible Downfield on USC, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% NU +4.2 pts
Q2 0:18 Illegal Formation on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NU +0.3 pts
Q3 9:06 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NU +0.3 pts
Q3 7:05 Pass Interference on USC, 15 yards +1% NU +2.2 pts
Q4 11:24 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards 0% USC +1.6 pts
Q4 6:54 Face Mask on Northwestern, 11 yards 0% USC +1.4 pts

When it happened

USC’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while USC was ahead in it, below while Northwestern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:29 Northwestern converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% NU NU: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:45 Northwestern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% NU NU: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:54 USC was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% NU USC: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:58 USC converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% USC USC: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:27 USC converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% USC USC: Punt
6 Q2 6:28 Ineligible Downfield on USC, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NU NU: Punt
7 Q2 6:05 USC was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% NU USC: Punt
8 Q3 2:39 Northwestern converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +2% NU NU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northwestern 0% · USC 100%

Final margin
USC by 21
Luck in points
5.6 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
USC by 15.4
Replay with same day's form
Northwestern 6% · USC 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Northwestern · USC

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