luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Nevada at Utah State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Utah State beat Nevada 51–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Utah State was a 74% favorite.

Final

Nevada Wolf Pack 14
Utah State Aggies 51

November 8, 2025 · Maverik Stadium · Closing line: Utah State −10

Luck index +1 Utah State about even · −1 Nevada

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Nevada wins 0, Utah State wins 10.

  1. 1 NEV 20 USU 27
  2. 2 NEV 20 USU 37
  3. 3 NEV 13 USU 34
  4. 4 NEV 7 USU 33
  5. 5 NEV 3 USU 31
  6. 6 NEV 10 USU 41
  7. 7 NEV 3 USU 38
  8. 8 NEV 13 USU 52
  9. 9 NEV 3 USU 47
  10. 10 NEV 2 USU 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Nevada wins 1% of them, Utah State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Nevada by 17+0.0%
Nevada by 9–160.0%
Nevada by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.1%
Utah State by 1–81.4%
Utah State by 9–165.0%
Utah State by 17+92.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.4 points to Utah State: the final margin was Utah State by 37, without the luck Utah State by 25.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Rinker, 32 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Rinker, 44 yds made · 67% expected
  • T. Rinker, 21 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Nevada 7 for 72 yards, Utah State 9 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:00 Pass Interference on Nevada, 15 yards +2% USU +1.7 pts
Q1 4:33 Ineligible Downfield on Utah State, 5 yards 0% NEV +0.4 pts
Q1 2:33 Face Mask on Utah State, 15 yards +1% NEV +0.9 pts
Q1 1:36 Holding on Nevada, 7 yards, wiping out the play +1% USU +3.5 pts
Q2 11:39 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards 0% NEV +0.6 pts
Q2 6:20 False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.5 pts
Q3 10:42 Face Mask on Nevada, 15 yards 0% USU +1.6 pts
Q3 7:00 Personal Foul on Nevada, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% USU +3.8 pts
Q3 4:18 Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.6 pts
Q3 4:15 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NEV +1.9 pts
Q3 0:21 Intentional Grounding on Nevada, 10 yards 0% USU +0.6 pts
Q3 0:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 15 yards 0% NEV +1.6 pts
Q4 12:00 Ineligible Downfield on Utah State, 5 yards 0% NEV +1.2 pts
Q4 8:11 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.5 pts
Q4 8:11 Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.3 pts
Q4 2:30 Illegal Substitution on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Utah State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Utah State was ahead in it, below while Nevada was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 Utah State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% USU USU: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:54 Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +1% USU NEV: Punt
3 Q1 10:19 Utah State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +3% USU USU: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:00 Pass Interference on Nevada, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% USU USU: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:56 Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +1% USU NEV: Punt
6 Q1 2:33 Face Mask on Utah State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% NEV NEV: Punt
7 Q1 1:46 Return touchdown by Utah StateSpecial teams +4% USU USU: Field goal
8 Q1 1:36 Holding on Nevada, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USU USU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Nevada 0% · Utah State 100%

Final margin
Utah State by 37
Luck in points
11.4 for Utah State
Luck-adjusted margin
Utah State by 25.6
Replay with same day's form
Nevada 1% · Utah State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Nevada · Utah State

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