Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Jacksonville State at UTEP, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat UTEP 30–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:12 left): Return touchdown by Jacksonville State, worth 26 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.
Final
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 30 |
|---|---|
 UTEP Miners | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Jacksonville State lucky · −35 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 6, UTEP wins 4.
- 1 JXST 40 UTEP 10
- 2 JXST 45 UTEP 24
- 3 JXST 30 UTEP 14
- 4 JXST 24 UTEP 14
- 5 JXST 31 UTEP 24
- 6 JXST 13 UTEP 10
- 7 JXST 38 UTEP 41
- 8 JXST 14 UTEP 21
- 9 JXST 21 UTEP 35
- 10 JXST 7 UTEP 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jacksonville State wins 65% of them, UTEP 35%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 28.6% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 16.9% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 18.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| UTEP by 17+ | 8.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Rippa, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Rippa, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- G. Rippa, 45 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: Jacksonville State 7 for 48 yards, UTEP 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:14 | False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% UTEP +2.3 pts |
| Q2 8:39 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:15 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 2 yards | +4% UTEP +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:28 | Offside on Jacksonville State, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Face Mask on UTEP, 15 yards | +4% JXST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:11 | Targeting on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +7% UTEP +2.3 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 15 yards | +3% JXST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:16 | False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% UTEP +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:59 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +8% JXST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +11% UTEP +1.3 pts |
When it happened
UTEP’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:12 | Return touchdown by Jacksonville StateSpecial teams | +26% JXST | JXST: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 5:06 | UTEP converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +10% UTEP | UTEP: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 12:16 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedUTEP fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% UTEP | JXST: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:58 | UTEP was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +11% JXST | UTEP: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 10:47 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% JXST | JXST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:59 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:50 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% UTEP | JXST: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:27 | UTEP was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +12% JXST | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jacksonville State 73% · UTEP 27%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for UTEP
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jacksonville State by 4.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Jacksonville State 65% · UTEP 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Jacksonville State · 
UTEP
More from Week 11 2025
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at New Mexico State KENN 24–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Missouri State at Liberty MOST 21–17 · replay 76% for the winner
- Florida International at Middle Tennessee FIU 56–30 · replay 98% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner