luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Kennesaw State beat New Mexico State 24–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:28 left): New Mexico State converted 3rd & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.

Final

Kennesaw State Owls 24
New Mexico State Aggies 21

November 8, 2025 · Aggie Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Kennesaw State −11.5

Luck index +39 Kennesaw State lucky · −39 New Mexico State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 6, New Mexico State wins 4.

  1. 1 KENN 46 NMSU 17
  2. 2 KENN 27 NMSU 7
  3. 3 KENN 35 NMSU 21
  4. 4 KENN 20 NMSU 9
  5. 5 KENN 23 NMSU 16
  6. 6 KENN 20 NMSU 17
  7. 7 KENN 26 NMSU 28
  8. 8 KENN 16 NMSU 23
  9. 9 KENN 21 NMSU 34
  10. 10 KENN 0 NMSU 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kennesaw State wins 61% of them, New Mexico State 39%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kennesaw State by 17+21.3%
Kennesaw State by 9–1619.4%
Kennesaw State by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
New Mexico State by 1–820.0%
New Mexico State by 9–1610.0%
New Mexico State by 17+9.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to Kennesaw State: the final margin was Kennesaw State by 3, without the luck Kennesaw State by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Williams, 35 yds made · 79% expected
  • B. Williams, 40 yds missed · 72% expected
  • R. Hawk, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kennesaw State 13 for 128 yards, New Mexico State 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:09 Roughing the Kicker on Kennesaw State, 15 yards +2% NMSU +4.5 pts
Q2 14:38 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN 0.0 pts
Q2 13:46 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NMSU +1.4 pts
Q2 10:25 Intentional Grounding on New Mexico State, 11 yards 0% KENN +0.7 pts
Q2 9:45 Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% KENN +1.7 pts
Q2 0:22 Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards 0% KENN +0.3 pts
Q3 14:06 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.8 pts
Q3 9:17 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NMSU +3.1 pts
Q3 7:41 Illegal Block on Kennesaw State, 10 yards 0% NMSU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:41 Illegal Formation on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.9 pts
Q3 1:33 Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 15 yards 0% NMSU +0.9 pts
Q4 14:58 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NMSU +3.6 pts
Q4 12:24 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +1% NMSU +2.6 pts
Q4 11:57 Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 12 yards 0% NMSU +0.6 pts
Q4 11:14 Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yards +1% NMSU +1.8 pts
Q4 11:06 Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 6 yards +1% NMSU +0.9 pts
Q4 10:35 Delay of Game on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.8 pts

When it happened

New Mexico State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 52%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while New Mexico State was ahead in it, below while Kennesaw State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:52 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% KENN KENN: End of half
2 Q1 6:09 Roughing the Kicker on Kennesaw State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% NMSU NMSU: Punt
3 Q4 8:09 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +2% KENN NMSU: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:42 New Mexico State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% NMSU NMSU: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:28 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +22% KENN NMSU: End of game
6 Q4 4:05 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +2% KENN NMSU: End of game
7 Q4 1:09 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% NMSU NMSU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:32 R. Hawk missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +14% KENN –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kennesaw State 63% · New Mexico State 37%

Final margin
Kennesaw State by 3
Luck in points
0.5 for Kennesaw State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kennesaw State by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Kennesaw State 61% · New Mexico State 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Kennesaw State · New Mexico State

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Every week 11 game, 2025