Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Florida International at Middle Tennessee, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Middle Tennessee 56–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida International wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Middle Tennessee: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida International it would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff Middle Tennessee was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:46 left): Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to Middle Tennessee.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Florida International about even · −2 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 10, Middle Tennessee wins 0.
- 1 FIU 73 MTSU 9
- 2 FIU 67 MTSU 14
- 3 FIU 68 MTSU 20
- 4 FIU 56 MTSU 13
- 5 FIU 56 MTSU 17
- 6 FIU 36 MTSU 3
- 7 FIU 73 MTSU 44
- 8 FIU 42 MTSU 17
- 9 FIU 44 MTSU 24
- 10 FIU 36 MTSU 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Middle Tennessee
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida International it would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for Middle Tennessee: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International offenseEPA per play gained | +0.36 | +0.04 | better by 0.32 |
| Florida International defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.03 | worse by 0.10 |
| Middle Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | −0.00 | better by 0.14 |
| Middle Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.36 | +0.13 | worse by 0.23 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 98% of them, Middle Tennessee 2%. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 90.1% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 5.3% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hathaway, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- N. Grant, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Florida International 5 for 56 yards, Middle Tennessee 7 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:58 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% MTSU +3.3 pts |
| Q1 8:47 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:49 | Encroachment on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:01 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +4% FIU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 3:42 | Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +3% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:46 | Roughing the Passer on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +3% FIU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | Face Mask on Florida International, 16 yards | +3% MTSU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 14:58 | Roughing the Passer on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +4% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% MTSU +3.1 pts |
| Q4 10:55 | Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 16 yards | 0% FIU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yards | 0% MTSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:58 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:54 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and Florida International recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% FIU | MTSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:29 | Florida International converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +6% MTSU | FIU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 7:04 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and Florida International recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% FIU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 12:45 | Florida International converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +5% FIU | FIU: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 10:46 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:37 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:10 | Florida International fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% FIU | FIU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 100% · Middle Tennessee 0%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 26
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 20.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 98% · Middle Tennessee 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Florida International · 
Middle Tennessee
More from Week 11 2025
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at New Mexico State KENN 24–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UTEP JXST 30–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Missouri State at Liberty MOST 21–17 · replay 76% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner