American · 2026 season, in progress

Army Black Knights: luck and expected wins

Army is 2–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 51st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Army wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bryant	W 59–3	100%	0
Week 2	vs South Florida	L 24–28	62%	−62
Week 4	@ Temple	W 21–17	9%	+91

Wk 1 0 vs BRY

Wk 2 −62 vs USF

Wk 4 +91 @ TEM

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Army win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Louisiana Tech	Army by 5.7	64%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Tulane	Army by 7.4	68%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Florida Atlantic	Army by 14.1	81%
Week 8 · Oct 23	at Tulsa	Army by 6.5	65%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Memphis	Memphis by 1.5	46%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Air Force	Army by 11.6	76%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs East Carolina	Army by 8.2	69%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Rice	Army by 13.5	79%
Week 15 · Dec 12	vs Navy	Army by 7.9	68%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Army’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.23	+13.5
Pre-snap flags	+0.10	+5.4
Kicks	+0.07	+1.1
Fumble bounces	−0.04	−1.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Army takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 4	@ Temple	W 21–17	9%	+91
2025 Week 2	@ Kansas State	W 24–21	19%	+81
2025 Week 14	@ UTSA	W 27–24	24%	+76
2025 Week 10	@ Air Force	W 20–17	34%	+66
2025 Week 11	vs Temple	W 14–13	48%	+52

Unluckiest losses

Losses Army would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 1	vs Tarleton State	L 27–30	87%	−87
2026 Week 2	vs South Florida	L 24–28	62%	−62
2025 Week 4	vs North Texas	L 38–45	50%	−50
2025 Week 13	vs Tulsa	L 25–26	45%	−45
2025 Week 16	vs Navy	L 16–17	36%	−36

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	5.1	+0.9	4–5	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Tarleton State	L 27–30	87%	−87
Week 2	@ Kansas State	W 24–21	19%	+81
Week 4	vs North Texas	L 38–45	50%	−50
Week 5	@ East Carolina	L 6–28	9%	−9
Week 6	@ UAB	W 31–13	51%	+49
Week 7	vs Charlotte	W 24–7	100%	0
Week 8	@ Tulane	L 17–24	8%	−8
Week 10	@ Air Force	W 20–17	34%	+66
Week 11	vs Temple	W 14–13	48%	+52
Week 13	vs Tulsa	L 25–26	45%	−45
Week 14	@ UTSA	W 27–24	24%	+76
Week 16	vs Navy	L 16–17	36%	−36
Wasabi Fenway Bowl	vs UConn	W 41–16	97%	+3