Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Army at Tulane, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Army 24–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulane wins 9 of 10. Army had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Army.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:10 left): Offside on Tulane, 0 yards, worth 37 points of win probability to Army.
Final
 Army Black Knights | 17 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Tulane about even · −8 Army
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Army wins 1, Tulane wins 9.
- 1 ARMY 27 TULN 20
- 2 ARMY 21 TULN 24
- 3 ARMY 28 TULN 35
- 4 ARMY 24 TULN 34
- 5 ARMY 7 TULN 20
- 6 ARMY 7 TULN 24
- 7 ARMY 7 TULN 27
- 8 ARMY 7 TULN 30
- 9 ARMY 7 TULN 35
- 10 ARMY 7 TULN 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Army wins 8% of them, Tulane 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Army by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Army by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Army by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 55.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Jones, 44 yds missed · 64% expected
- P. Durkin, 30 yds made · 88% expected
- D. Jones, 43 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Army 3 for 30 yards, Tulane 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +4% ARMY +2.7 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | Chop Block on Army, 15 yards | +2% TULN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +3% ARMY +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:31 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +2% ARMY +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:10 | Offside on Tulane, 0 yards · pre-snap | +15% ARMY +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:28 | Holding on Army, 10 yards | +23% ARMY +2.6 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedArmy converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedArmy was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedArmy converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedArmy was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedArmy converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedHolding on Tulane, 10 yardsJudgment callsChop Block on Army, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARMY | ARMY: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:16 | D. Jones missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him | +5% TULN | ARMY: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:37 | Tulane was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedArmy was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedArmy converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedPass Interference on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Army, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% ARMY | TULN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 15:00 | Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +7% TULN | TULN: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 14:10 | Army converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedArmy converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedArmy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedArmy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Offside on Tulane, 0 yardsPre-snap flags | +37% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:54 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +11% ARMY | TULN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:54 | Tulane converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +26% TULN | TULN: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:28 | Tulane converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedHolding on Army, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +16% ARMY | TULN: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Army 12% · Tulane 88%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Army 8% · Tulane 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Army · 
Tulane
More from Week 8 2025
- Memphis at UAB UAB 31–24 · replay 64% for the winner
- UTSA at North Texas UNT 55–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Tulsa at East Carolina ECU 41–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Temple at Charlotte TEM 49–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at South Florida USF 48–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner