luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Florida Atlantic at South Florida, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat Florida Atlantic 48–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 91% favorite.

Final

Florida Atlantic Owls 13
South Florida Bulls 48

October 18, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −20.5

Luck index +2 South Florida about even · −2 Florida Atlantic

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 0, South Florida wins 10.

  1. 1 FAU 14 USF 19
  2. 2 FAU 20 USF 31
  3. 3 FAU 14 USF 28
  4. 4 FAU 7 USF 26
  5. 5 FAU 0 USF 21
  6. 6 FAU 14 USF 41
  7. 7 FAU 3 USF 33
  8. 8 FAU 7 USF 41
  9. 9 FAU 7 USF 44
  10. 10 FAU 0 USF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida Atlantic wins 2% of them, South Florida 98%. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida Atlantic by 17+0.0%
Florida Atlantic by 9–160.3%
Florida Atlantic by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.3%
South Florida by 1–84.9%
South Florida by 9–169.3%
South Florida by 17+84.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to Florida Atlantic: the final margin was South Florida by 35, without the luck South Florida by 41.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Smith, 45 yds made · 64% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 43 yds missed · 69% expected
  • G. Smith, 37 yds missed · 79% expected
  • G. Smith, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida Atlantic 8 for 60 yards, South Florida 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:21 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.8 pts
Q1 8:30 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards +1% FAU +1.1 pts
Q2 12:18 Disconcerting Signals on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +2.3 pts
Q2 9:35 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.6 pts
Q2 2:53 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards 0% FAU +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:18 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.3 pts
Q3 12:17 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards +1% FAU +1.6 pts
Q3 7:43 Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% USF +2.5 pts
Q3 2:05 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards 0% FAU +0.6 pts
Q4 11:35 Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards 0% USF +1.2 pts
Q4 10:40 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +0.6 pts
Q4 9:31 Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards 0% USF +0.4 pts
Q4 3:40 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% FAU +3.7 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while Florida Atlantic was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:31 South Florida converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +2% USF USF: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:43 South Florida converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% USF USF: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:19 N. Gramatica missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him +2% FAU USF: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:39 Florida Atlantic fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% FAU FAU: Punt
5 Q2 12:34 South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +1% FAU USF: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:18 Disconcerting Signals on Florida Atlantic, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% USF USF: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:05 South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% FAU USF: Punt
8 Q3 7:43 Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USF USF: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida Atlantic 0% · South Florida 100%

Final margin
South Florida by 35
Luck in points
6.8 for Florida Atlantic
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 41.8
Replay with same day's form
Florida Atlantic 2% · South Florida 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Florida Atlantic · South Florida

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