Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
UTSA at North Texas, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat UTSA 55–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 9 of 10.
An off day for UTSA: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Texas it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff North Texas was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:44 left): Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to North Texas.
Final
 UTSA Roadrunners | 17 |
|---|---|
 North Texas Mean Green | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 North Texas about even · −6 UTSA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTSA wins 1, North Texas wins 9.
- 1 UTSA 31 UNT 24
- 2 UTSA 24 UNT 27
- 3 UTSA 28 UNT 37
- 4 UTSA 38 UNT 51
- 5 UTSA 28 UNT 47
- 6 UTSA 21 UNT 45
- 7 UTSA 23 UNT 52
- 8 UTSA 17 UNT 49
- 9 UTSA 16 UNT 52
- 10 UTSA 10 UNT 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UTSA
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Texas it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for UTSA: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.06 | better by 0.12 |
| UTSA defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.39 | +0.04 | worse by 0.36 |
| North Texas offenseEPA per play gained | +0.39 | +0.13 | better by 0.26 |
| North Texas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.13 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTSA wins 6% of them, North Texas 94%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTSA by 17+ | 0.4% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 3.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| North Texas by 17+ | 68.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Nguma, 28 yds made · 87% expected
- M. Petro, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- K. Nguma, 19 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: UTSA 8 for 64 yards, North Texas 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:44 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% UNT +5.3 pts |
| Q1 7:31 | Illegal Block on UTSA, 10 yards | +5% UNT +2.3 pts |
| Q1 5:19 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | +3% UNT +1.3 pts |
| Q1 5:19 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:11 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | Holding on UTSA, 9 yards | +1% UNT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:50 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTSA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:22 | Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards | +4% UTSA +1.8 pts |
| Q3 9:58 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards | +1% UTSA +2.1 pts |
| Q3 3:07 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Delay of Game on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:51 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.5 pts |
When it happened
North Texas’s chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:44 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% UNT | UNT: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:19 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on North Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:11 | North Texas converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedUTSA was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on UTSA, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:56 | UTSA converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedUTSA converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedUTSA converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedHolding on UTSA, 9 yardsJudgment callsHolding on UTSA, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UTSA | UTSA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 1:43 | North Texas converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedNorth Texas converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:34 | North Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:09 | North Texas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | North Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTSA 0% · North Texas 100%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 38
- Luck in points
- 6.8 for North Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 31.2
- Replay with same day's form
- UTSA 6% · North Texas 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
UTSA · 
North Texas
More from Week 8 2025
- Memphis at UAB UAB 31–24 · replay 64% for the winner
- Army at Tulane TULN 24–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Tulsa at East Carolina ECU 41–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Temple at Charlotte TEM 49–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at South Florida USF 48–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner