Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 49 of the 63 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Temple at Charlotte, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Temple beat Charlotte 49–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Temple wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Temple was a 74% favorite.
Final
 Temple Owls | 49 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Temple about even · −4 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Temple wins 10, Charlotte wins 0.
- 1 TEM 42 CLT 6
- 2 TEM 38 CLT 7
- 3 TEM 42 CLT 14
- 4 TEM 31 CLT 7
- 5 TEM 42 CLT 21
- 6 TEM 28 CLT 10
- 7 TEM 28 CLT 13
- 8 TEM 20 CLT 7
- 9 TEM 17 CLT 7
- 10 TEM 21 CLT 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Temple wins 96% of them, Charlotte 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Temple by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Temple by 17+ | 69.0% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Temple 2 for 25 yards, Charlotte 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:00 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yards | +3% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:17 | Delay of Game on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:33 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards | 0% CLT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:00 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CLT | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:25 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% TEM | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 9:50 | Charlotte was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% TEM | CLT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:21 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% CLT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:55 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% CLT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:38 | Charlotte converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +4% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 14:09 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +4% CLT | TEM: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:02 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +2% TEM | CLT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Temple 100% · Charlotte 0%
- Final margin
- Temple by 35
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for Charlotte
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 40.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Temple 96% · Charlotte 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 49 of the 63 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Temple · 
Charlotte
More from Week 8 2025
- Memphis at UAB UAB 31–24 · replay 64% for the winner
- Army at Tulane TULN 24–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- UTSA at North Texas UNT 55–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Tulsa at East Carolina ECU 41–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at South Florida USF 48–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner