Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Memphis at UAB, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
UAB beat Memphis 31–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Memphis had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Memphis.
An off day for Memphis: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UAB it would win 87% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%. The numbers
Before kickoff Memphis was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:45 left): False Start on Memphis, 5 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to UAB.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 24 |
|---|---|
 UAB Blazers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 UAB lucky · −36 Memphis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 4, UAB wins 6.
- 1 MEM 34 UAB 14
- 2 MEM 20 UAB 10
- 3 MEM 26 UAB 20
- 4 MEM 26 UAB 23
- 5 MEM 17 UAB 20
- 6 MEM 20 UAB 24
- 7 MEM 13 UAB 20
- 8 MEM 7 UAB 17
- 9 MEM 13 UAB 28
- 10 MEM 17 UAB 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Memphis
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UAB it would win 87% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for Memphis: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.17 | worse by 0.09 |
| Memphis defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.45 | +0.07 | worse by 0.38 |
| UAB offenseEPA per play gained | +0.45 | +0.08 | better by 0.36 |
| UAB defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.14 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 36% of them, UAB 64%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UAB by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 4.7% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 16.6% |
| Level after regulation | 7.4% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 26.0% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| UAB by 17+ | 17.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Delange, 21 yds made · 95% expected
- G. Spetic, 25 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Memphis 8 for 54 yards, UAB 6 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:23 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% UAB +2.4 pts |
| Q1 3:36 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:35 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% MEM +3.2 pts |
| Q2 6:59 | Face Mask on UAB, 15 yards | +1% MEM +1.2 pts |
| Q2 4:49 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UAB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:06 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UAB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards | +8% MEM +2.6 pts |
| Q4 9:33 | False Start on UAB, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% UAB +0.2 pts |
| Q4 7:38 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 9 yards | 0% UAB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:46 | Ineligible Downfield on UAB, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MEM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:38 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% UAB +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:45 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +15% UAB +1.8 pts |
| Q4 0:26 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +12% UAB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:19 | Delay of Game on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UAB +0.2 pts |
When it happened
UAB’s chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 6:41 | Holding on UAB, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MEM | MEM: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 3:53 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% UAB | MEM: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 0:51 | UAB converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +9% UAB | UAB: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 12:45 | UAB fumbled and Memphis recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% MEM | UAB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:07 | UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +12% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:32 | UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +9% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:45 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +15% UAB | UAB: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:26 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% UAB | UAB: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 71% · UAB 29%
- Final margin
- UAB by 7
- Luck in points
- 10.4 for UAB
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 36% · UAB 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Memphis · 
UAB
More from Week 8 2025
- Army at Tulane TULN 24–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- UTSA at North Texas UNT 55–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Tulsa at East Carolina ECU 41–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Temple at Charlotte TEM 49–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at South Florida USF 48–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner