American · 2026 season, in progress

Memphis Tigers: luck and expected wins

Memphis is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.2 wins. Luck cost 0.2: the 47th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Memphis wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ UNLV	W 27–21	84%	+16
Week 1	vs Arkansas State	W 42–24	88%	+12
Week 2	@ Boise State	L 20–38	50%	−50
Week 3	vs UT Martin	W 45–21	100%	0

Wk 1 +16 @ UNLV

Wk 1 +12 vs ARST

Wk 2 −50 @ BOIS

Wk 3 0 vs UTM

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Memphis win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Charlotte	Memphis by 20.3	90%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs UAB	Memphis by 15.8	84%
Week 7 · Oct 16	at Tulane	Tulane by 0.6	49%
Week 8 · Oct 22	vs East Carolina	Memphis by 6.6	66%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Army	Memphis by 1.5	54%
Week 11 · Nov 12	at South Florida	South Florida by 7.1	34%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Navy	Memphis by 2.9	57%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Temple	Memphis by 8.9	70%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Memphis’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.07	+8.1
3rd & 4th downs	+0.03	−2.4
Kicks	−0.11	+3.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Memphis takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs South Florida	W 34–31	28%	+72
2025 Week 4	vs Arkansas	W 32–31	30%	+70
2025 Week 2	@ Georgia State	W 38–16	64%	+36
2026 Week 1	@ UNLV	W 27–21	84%	+16
2026 Week 1	vs Arkansas State	W 42–24	88%	+12

Unluckiest losses

Losses Memphis would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	vs Navy	L 17–28	58%	−58
2026 Week 2	@ Boise State	L 20–38	50%	−50
2025 Week 12	@ East Carolina	L 27–31	38%	−38
2025 Week 8	@ UAB	L 24–31	36%	−36
2025 Week 11	vs Tulane	L 32–38	26%	−26

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	7.7	+0.3	2–3	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Chattanooga	W 45–10	99%	+1
Week 2	@ Georgia State	W 38–16	64%	+36
Week 3	@ Troy	W 28–7	99%	+1
Week 4	vs Arkansas	W 32–31	30%	+70
Week 5	@ Florida Atlantic	W 55–26	94%	+6
Week 6	vs Tulsa	W 45–7	97%	+3
Week 8	@ UAB	L 24–31	36%	−36
Week 9	vs South Florida	W 34–31	28%	+72
Week 10	@ Rice	W 38–14	100%	0
Week 11	vs Tulane	L 32–38	26%	−26
Week 12	@ East Carolina	L 27–31	38%	−38
Week 14	vs Navy	L 17–28	58%	−58
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl	vs NC State	L 7–31	2%	−2