Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Chattanooga at Memphis, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Memphis beat Chattanooga 45–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Memphis was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Chattanooga Mocs | 10 |
|---|---|
 Memphis Tigers | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Memphis about even · −1 Chattanooga
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chattanooga wins 0, Memphis wins 10.
- 1 UTC 14 MEM 24
- 2 UTC 21 MEM 38
- 3 UTC 24 MEM 45
- 4 UTC 7 MEM 31
- 5 UTC 14 MEM 42
- 6 UTC 10 MEM 42
- 7 UTC 6 MEM 41
- 8 UTC 17 MEM 56
- 9 UTC 0 MEM 45
- 10 UTC 6 MEM 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chattanooga wins 1% of them, Memphis 99%. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chattanooga by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Chattanooga by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Chattanooga by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| Memphis by 17+ | 90.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kelley, 53 yds blocked · 48% expected
- J. Kelley, 32 yds made · 83% expected
- J. Kelley, 43 yds missed · 66% expected
- G. Spetic, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Chattanooga 3 for 25 yards, Memphis 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:04 | False Start on Chattanooga, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:38 | Personal Foul on Chattanooga, 15 yards | 0% MEM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:47 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | 0% UTC +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:47 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% UTC +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:42 | Offside on Chattanooga, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:46 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% UTC +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Memphis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:28 | Chattanooga was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +1% MEM | UTC: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:45 | J. Kelley had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 48% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before | +1% MEM | UTC: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:52 | Memphis converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +0% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:23 | Chattanooga was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% MEM | UTC: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:40 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% UTC | MEM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:29 | Memphis converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 0:22 | Memphis converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 12:41 | Chattanooga converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% UTC | UTC: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chattanooga 0% · Memphis 100%
- Final margin
- Memphis by 35
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 25.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chattanooga 1% · Memphis 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Chattanooga · 
Memphis
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at Tulsa TLSA 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- App State vs Charlotte APP 34–11 · replay 100% for the winner
- VMI at Navy NAVY 52–7 · replay 100% for the winner