Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025
App State vs Charlotte, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
App State beat Charlotte 34–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, App State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff App State was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:49 left): Charlotte converted 3rd & 11, worth 10 points of win probability to Charlotte.
Final
 App State Mountaineers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 App State about even · 0 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. App State wins 10, Charlotte wins 0.
- 1 APP 60 CLT 3
- 2 APP 49 CLT 0
- 3 APP 44 CLT 0
- 4 APP 39 CLT 0
- 5 APP 35 CLT 0
- 6 APP 38 CLT 7
- 7 APP 36 CLT 9
- 8 APP 30 CLT 7
- 9 APP 26 CLT 7
- 10 APP 25 CLT 14
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
App State wins 100% of them, Charlotte 0%. The line is what actually happened: App State by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| App State by 17+ | 96.6% |
| App State by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| App State by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Boyd, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- D. De Freitas, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- D. De Freitas, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: App State 8 for 83 yards, Charlotte 7 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:32 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | +1% CLT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 13:32 | Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:58 | Holding on Charlotte, 4 yards | 0% APP +0.2 pts |
| Q1 9:56 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | +1% CLT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:49 | Roughing the Passer on App State, 15 yards | +2% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:49 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:38 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% APP +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:22 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Personal Foul on App State, 3 yards | 0% CLT +0.2 pts |
| Q3 1:20 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:49 | Personal Foul on App State, 15 yards | 0% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards | 0% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:25 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 15 yards | +2% APP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:18 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | 0% CLT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on Charlotte, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% APP | CLT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:32 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedApp State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedHolding on App State, 10 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on App State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% CLT | APP: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:49 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedCharlotte converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedCharlotte converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedCharlotte was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedApp State fumbled and Charlotte recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Roughing the Passer on App State, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Charlotte, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% CLT | CLT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:21 | L. Boyd made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +4% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% CLT | APP: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:56 | App State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% APP | APP: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:07 | App State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +2% APP | APP: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 0:03 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% APP | APP: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
App State 100% · Charlotte 0%
- Final margin
- App State by 23
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- App State by 23.0
- Replay with same day's form
- App State 100% · Charlotte 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
App State · 
Charlotte
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner