luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

Saint Francis at UL Monroe, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

UL Monroe beat Saint Francis 29–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UL Monroe wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff UL Monroe was a 98% favorite.

Final

Saint Francis Red Flash 0
UL Monroe Warhawks 29

August 28, 2025 · Malone Stadium · Closing line: UL Monroe −30.5

Luck index +7 UL Monroe about even · −7 Saint Francis

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saint Francis wins 1, UL Monroe wins 9.

  1. 1 SFPA 6 ULM 0
  2. 2 SFPA 0 ULM 3
  3. 3 SFPA 7 ULM 14
  4. 4 SFPA 6 ULM 16
  5. 5 SFPA 7 ULM 20
  6. 6 SFPA 6 ULM 21
  7. 7 SFPA 3 ULM 21
  8. 8 SFPA 0 ULM 21
  9. 9 SFPA 3 ULM 28
  10. 10 SFPA 0 ULM 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saint Francis wins 7% of them, UL Monroe 93%. The line is what actually happened: UL Monroe by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saint Francis by 17+0.1%
Saint Francis by 9–161.4%
Saint Francis by 1–85.3%
Level after regulation0.3%
UL Monroe by 1–815.3%
UL Monroe by 9–1622.0%
UL Monroe by 17+55.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to UL Monroe: the final margin was UL Monroe by 29, without the luck UL Monroe by 21.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Stagg, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
  • L. Stagg, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saint Francis 5 for 43 yards, UL Monroe 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:26 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards +1% SFPA +1.7 pts
Q1 0:57 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards 0% SFPA +0.9 pts
Q2 14:01 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SFPA +0.6 pts
Q2 10:39 False Start on Saint Francis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +0.6 pts
Q2 8:43 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% SFPA +7.5 pts
Q3 10:45 Face Mask on Saint Francis, 10 yards 0% ULM +0.2 pts
Q3 5:34 Holding on Saint Francis, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ULM +3.0 pts
Q3 0:34 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards 0% ULM +0.8 pts
Q4 10:12 Illegal Substitution on Saint Francis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +0.4 pts
Q4 4:31 Face Mask on Saint Francis, 13 yards 0% ULM +0.8 pts

When it happened

UL Monroe’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UL Monroe was ahead in it, below while Saint Francis was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:26 UL Monroe converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +0% ULM ULM: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:26 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% SFPA SFPA: Punt
3 Q1 6:16 Saint Francis converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% SFPA SFPA: Punt
4 Q1 2:21 UL Monroe converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedUL Monroe fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% ULM ULM: Missed field goal
5 Q2 8:43 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% SFPA SFPA: Punt
6 Q2 7:06 Saint Francis was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +0% ULM SFPA: Punt
7 Q2 2:54 UL Monroe converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +0% ULM ULM: Field goal
8 Q3 5:34 Holding on Saint Francis, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% ULM ULM: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saint Francis 0% · UL Monroe 100%

Final margin
UL Monroe by 29
Luck in points
7.4 for UL Monroe
Luck-adjusted margin
UL Monroe by 21.6
Replay with same day's form
Saint Francis 7% · UL Monroe 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Saint Francis · UL Monroe

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