luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Central Connecticut at UConn, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

UConn beat Central Connecticut 59–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UConn wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UConn was a 97% favorite.

Final

Central Connecticut Blue Devils 13
UConn Huskies 59

August 30, 2025 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · Closing line: UConn −29.5

Luck index +1 UConn about even · −1 Central Connecticut

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Connecticut wins 0, UConn wins 10.

  1. 1 CCSU 21 CONN 31
  2. 2 CCSU 14 CONN 32
  3. 3 CCSU 8 CONN 31
  4. 4 CCSU 14 CONN 42
  5. 5 CCSU 10 CONN 42
  6. 6 CCSU 13 CONN 48
  7. 7 CCSU 10 CONN 48
  8. 8 CCSU 3 CONN 48
  9. 9 CCSU 0 CONN 51
  10. 10 CCSU 0 CONN 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Connecticut wins 1% of them, UConn 99%. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 46.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Central Connecticut by 17+0.1%
Central Connecticut by 9–160.1%
Central Connecticut by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
UConn by 1–82.2%
UConn by 9–164.4%
UConn by 17+92.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to UConn: the final margin was UConn by 46, without the luck UConn by 43.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Hennessey, 20 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Hennessey, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Freeman, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Freeman, 35 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Connecticut 6 for 40 yards, UConn 7 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:48 Personal Foul on Central Connecticut, 15 yards 0% CONN +1.4 pts
Q1 12:45 Holding on UConn, 23 yards 0% CCSU +1.4 pts
Q1 12:45 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CCSU +1.2 pts
Q1 11:18 Holding on UConn, 10 yards 0% CCSU +0.6 pts
Q1 8:24 False Start on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.8 pts
Q1 8:10 Pass Interference on UConn, 10 yards +1% CCSU +1.9 pts
Q2 14:03 Pass Interference on UConn, 10 yards 0% CCSU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.2 pts
Q2 1:43 False Start on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.2 pts
Q3 10:22 Illegal Snap on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.7 pts
Q3 7:56 False Start on Central Connecticut, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +2.3 pts
Q4 13:32 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCSU +0.7 pts
Q4 8:16 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards 0% CCSU +2.0 pts

When it happened

UConn’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UConn was ahead in it, below while Central Connecticut was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 UConn was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +1% CCSU CONN: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:45 Holding on UConn, 23 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on UConn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% CCSU CCSU: Punt
3 Q1 11:18 UConn was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedHolding on UConn, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% CCSU CONN: Touchdown
4 Q1 11:12 UConn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +1% CONN CONN: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:10 Pass Interference on UConn, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% CCSU CCSU: Punt
6 Q1 1:29 UConn converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +1% CONN CONN: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:17 Central Connecticut was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +0% CONN CCSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 11:37 Central Connecticut was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +1% CONN CCSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Connecticut 0% · UConn 100%

Final margin
UConn by 46
Luck in points
2.2 for UConn
Luck-adjusted margin
UConn by 43.8
Replay with same day's form
Central Connecticut 1% · UConn 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Central Connecticut · UConn

More from Week 1 2025

Every week 1 game, 2025