Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Long Island University at Florida, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida beat Long Island University 55–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Long Island University Sharks | 0 |
|---|---|
 Florida Gators | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Florida about even · 0 Long Island University
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Long Island University wins 0, Florida wins 10.
- 1 LIU 7 FLA 23
- 2 LIU 3 FLA 27
- 3 LIU 3 FLA 33
- 4 LIU 0 FLA 33
- 5 LIU 0 FLA 35
- 6 LIU 0 FLA 38
- 7 LIU 0 FLA 42
- 8 LIU 0 FLA 45
- 9 LIU 0 FLA 52
- 10 LIU 0 FLA 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Long Island University wins 0% of them, Florida 100%. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 55.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Long Island University by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Long Island University by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Long Island University by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Florida by 17+ | 96.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Smack, 40 yds missed · 76% expected
- T. Smack, 56 yds made · 47% expected
- T. Smack, 39 yds missed · 78% expected
- T. Smack, 41 yds made · 74% expected
- T. Smack, 57 yds missed · 46% expected
Penalties: Long Island University 11 for 85 yards, Florida 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:57 | Delay of Game on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +1.3 pts |
| Q1 10:26 | Personal Foul on Long Island University, 15 yards | 0% FLA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:02 | False Start on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:04 | False Start on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Face Mask on Long Island University, 15 yards | 0% FLA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:45 | Block Below the Waist on Long Island University, 5 yards | 0% FLA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Pass Interference on Long Island University, 15 yards | 0% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Delay of Game on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Offside on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +2.8 pts |
| Q3 1:06 | Delay of Game on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:50 | Offside on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Florida’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:41 | Long Island University fumbled and Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by FloridaSpecial teams | +0% FLA | LIU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:40 | Long Island University was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% FLA | LIU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:57 | Delay of Game on Long Island University, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:36 | Long Island University was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% FLA | LIU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:19 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% FLA | FLA: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:47 | T. Smack made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 9 of 14 from 45+ before | +0% FLA | FLA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 9:21 | T. Smack missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +0% LIU | FLA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:14 | Florida fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Long Island University 0% · Florida 100%
- Final margin
- Florida by 55
- Luck in points
- 17.1 for Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida by 37.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Long Island University 0% · Florida 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Long Island University · 
Florida
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Southern Miss MSST 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Missouri MIZ 61–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Central Connecticut at UConn CONN 59–13 · replay 99% for the winner