Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Toledo at Kentucky, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Toledo 24–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kentucky wins 9 of 10. Toledo had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Toledo.
Before kickoff Kentucky was a 74% favorite.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 16 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Kentucky about even · −6 Toledo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 1, Kentucky wins 9.
- 1 TOL 27 UK 21
- 2 TOL 10 UK 13
- 3 TOL 21 UK 28
- 4 TOL 13 UK 24
- 5 TOL 0 UK 14
- 6 TOL 10 UK 28
- 7 TOL 10 UK 31
- 8 TOL 17 UK 41
- 9 TOL 7 UK 38
- 10 TOL 7 UK 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 6% of them, Kentucky 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 63.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Toledo 9 for 90 yards, Kentucky 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:46 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +2% TOL +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:58 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 9 yards | +3% UK +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:04 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +3% UK +2.5 pts |
| Q2 12:41 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UK +1.1 pts |
| Q3 12:56 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards | +4% UK +2.4 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:56 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 14 yards | +2% UK +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:38 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards | +1% UK +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:45 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:55 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% UK | UK: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:04 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% UK | UK: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 2:00 | Toledo converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% TOL | TOL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:35 | Kentucky fumbled and Toledo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TOL | UK: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 9:39 | Toledo converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% TOL | TOL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 7:28 | Toledo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% UK | TOL: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:56 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UK | UK: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 7:22 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% UK | UK: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 26% · Kentucky 74%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 8
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 6% · Kentucky 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Toledo · 
Kentucky
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner