luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 31, 2025

Virginia Tech vs South Carolina, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24–11, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, South Carolina wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff South Carolina was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:36 left): Return touchdown by South Carolina, worth 12 points of win probability to South Carolina.

Final

Virginia Tech Hokies 11
South Carolina Gamecocks 24

August 31, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: South Carolina −8.5

Luck index +49 South Carolina lucky · −49 Virginia Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 5, South Carolina wins 5.

  1. 1 VT 31 SC 7
  2. 2 VT 16 SC 0
  3. 3 VT 20 SC 10
  4. 4 VT 13 SC 7
  5. 5 VT 16 SC 14
  6. 6 VT 19 SC 21
  7. 7 VT 10 SC 17
  8. 8 VT 7 SC 18
  9. 9 VT 3 SC 20
  10. 10 VT 0 SC 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Virginia Tech wins 49% of them, South Carolina 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Carolina by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Virginia Tech by 17+12.8%
Virginia Tech by 9–1614.3%
Virginia Tech by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation5.7%
South Carolina by 1–819.8%
South Carolina by 9–1614.8%
South Carolina by 17+13.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to South Carolina: the final margin was South Carolina by 13, without the luck South Carolina by 10.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Love, 29 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Joyce, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Love, 56 yds made · 49% expected
  • J. Love, 39 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Virginia Tech 4 for 40 yards, South Carolina 8 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SC +1.2 pts
Q1 10:44 Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% VT +0.8 pts
Q1 8:06 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% VT +0.9 pts
Q1 3:42 Personal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yards +3% SC +2.0 pts
Q1 0:30 Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% VT +1.7 pts
Q2 14:48 Personal Foul on South Carolina, 11 yards +3% VT +1.4 pts
Q2 13:45 Delay of Game on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VT +0.7 pts
Q2 6:24 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards +1% VT +0.6 pts
Q2 1:56 Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% VT +0.3 pts
Q3 4:40 Personal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yards +5% SC +1.7 pts
Q4 13:57 Illegal Formation on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SC +0.4 pts
Q4 3:48 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VT +0.4 pts

When it happened

South Carolina’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Carolina was ahead in it, below while Virginia Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:17 South Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% SC SC: Punt
2 Q2 5:55 South Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% SC SC: Field goal
3 Q3 10:57 Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% SC VT: Punt
4 Q3 8:09 South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% VT SC: Punt
5 Q3 5:42 Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% VT VT: Punt
6 Q3 4:40 Personal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% SC SC: Punt
7 Q4 13:36 Return touchdown by South CarolinaSpecial teams +12% SC SC: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:45 Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% SC VT: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Virginia Tech 5% · South Carolina 95%

Final margin
South Carolina by 13
Luck in points
2.2 for South Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
South Carolina by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Virginia Tech 49% · South Carolina 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Virginia Tech · South Carolina

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