Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
California at Oregon State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
California beat Oregon State 34–15, but the replays lean toward Oregon State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Oregon State was a 58% favorite.
Final
 California Golden Bears | 34 |
|---|---|
 Oregon State Beavers | 15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 California very lucky · −61 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. California wins 4, Oregon State wins 6.
- 1 CAL 24 ORST 0
- 2 CAL 28 ORST 13
- 3 CAL 20 ORST 10
- 4 CAL 20 ORST 17
- 5 CAL 13 ORST 16
- 6 CAL 14 ORST 21
- 7 CAL 14 ORST 24
- 8 CAL 17 ORST 31
- 9 CAL 14 ORST 34
- 10 CAL 17 ORST 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
California wins 39% of them, Oregon State 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| California by 17+ | 9.1% |
| California by 9–16 | 10.8% |
| California by 1–8 | 17.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.0% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Oregon State by 17+ | 20.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ojeda, 53 yds made · 49% expected
- A. Murray, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- C. Meyer, 23 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: California 5 for 74 yards, Oregon State 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:05 | Illegal Substitution on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% CAL +2.8 pts |
| Q2 14:24 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +2% ORST +1.2 pts |
| Q2 6:36 | False Start on California, 50 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:50 | Delay of Game on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.2 pts |
| Q3 4:21 | Pass Interference on California, 1 yard | +2% ORST +2.0 pts |
| Q4 9:33 | Roughing the Passer on California, 8 yards | 0% ORST +1.2 pts |
| Q4 6:18 | Offside on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Oregon State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:59 | California was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +4% ORST | CAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:05 | Illegal Substitution on Oregon State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:23 | California converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedOregon State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:04 | Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% CAL | ORST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:32 | California was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +3% ORST | CAL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 2:18 | California was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% ORST | CAL: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:29 | C. Ojeda made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +3% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:42 | Oregon State fumbled and California recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% CAL | ORST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
California 99% · Oregon State 1%
- Final margin
- California by 19
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- California by 17.5
- Replay with same day's form
- California 39% · Oregon State 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
California · 
Oregon State
More from Week 1 2025
- Idaho at Washington State WSU 13–10 · replay 33% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Virginia UVA 48–7 · replay 98% for the winner