luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Coastal Carolina at Virginia, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Virginia beat Coastal Carolina 48–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Virginia was a 79% favorite.

Final

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 7
Virginia Cavaliers 48

August 30, 2025 · Scott Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −12.5

Luck index +2 Virginia about even · −2 Coastal Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 0, Virginia wins 10.

  1. 1 CCU 13 UVA 19
  2. 2 CCU 23 UVA 34
  3. 3 CCU 13 UVA 28
  4. 4 CCU 23 UVA 42
  5. 5 CCU 6 UVA 28
  6. 6 CCU 10 UVA 35
  7. 7 CCU 9 UVA 38
  8. 8 CCU 7 UVA 40
  9. 9 CCU 6 UVA 45
  10. 10 CCU 6 UVA 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Coastal Carolina wins 2% of them, Virginia 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 41.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Coastal Carolina by 17+0.1%
Coastal Carolina by 9–160.3%
Coastal Carolina by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Virginia by 1–84.8%
Virginia by 9–168.7%
Virginia by 17+84.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to Virginia: the final margin was Virginia by 41, without the luck Virginia by 34.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Bettridge, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 32 yds made · 85% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Coastal Carolina 7 for 60 yards, Virginia 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:35 Roughing the Passer on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards +2% UVA +1.6 pts
Q1 12:06 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +0.7 pts
Q1 11:01 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +1.4 pts
Q1 7:49 Personal Foul on Virginia, 15 yards +2% CCU +0.9 pts
Q1 6:18 Illegal Formation on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CCU +3.0 pts
Q1 5:22 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CCU +0.8 pts
Q2 13:54 Illegal Substitution on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +0.6 pts
Q2 10:20 Unnecessary Roughness on Virginia, 5 yards +1% CCU +0.9 pts
Q2 6:18 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.8 pts
Q3 14:39 Illegal Block on Virginia, 10 yards 0% CCU +0.6 pts
Q3 14:39 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.4 pts
Q3 10:37 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% UVA +1.3 pts
Q4 11:13 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% UVA +1.7 pts
Q4 7:03 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% UVA +0.8 pts

When it happened

Virginia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia was ahead in it, below while Coastal Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Roughing the Passer on Coastal Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% UVA UVA: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:01 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% UVA UVA: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 7:49 Virginia was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedPersonal Foul on Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% CCU UVA: Punt
4 Q1 6:18 Illegal Formation on Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% CCU CCU: Turnover
5 Q1 5:22 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedCoastal Carolina fumbled and Virginia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% CCU UVA: Punt
6 Q1 2:08 Virginia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% UVA UVA: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:08 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +2% UVA CCU: Punt
8 Q2 13:49 Blocked punt by VirginiaSpecial teams +3% UVA UVA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Coastal Carolina 0% · Virginia 100%

Final margin
Virginia by 41
Luck in points
6.7 for Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia by 34.3
Replay with same day's form
Coastal Carolina 2% · Virginia 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Coastal Carolina · Virginia

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