luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

LSU at Clemson, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

LSU beat Clemson 17–10, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, LSU wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Clemson was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:03 left): Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to LSU.

Final

LSU Tigers 17
Clemson Tigers 10

August 30, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Closing line: Clemson −3.5

Luck index +41 LSU lucky · −41 Clemson

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. LSU wins 6, Clemson wins 4.

  1. 1 LSU 29 CLEM 2
  2. 2 LSU 20 CLEM 0
  3. 3 LSU 28 CLEM 14
  4. 4 LSU 10 CLEM 0
  5. 5 LSU 23 CLEM 17
  6. 6 LSU 13 CLEM 10
  7. 7 LSU 7 CLEM 9
  8. 8 LSU 14 CLEM 20
  9. 9 LSU 7 CLEM 17
  10. 10 LSU 7 CLEM 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

LSU wins 59% of them, Clemson 41%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
LSU by 17+19.3%
LSU by 9–1618.9%
LSU by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation6.5%
Clemson by 1–817.1%
Clemson by 9–1611.1%
Clemson by 17+6.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Clemson: the final margin was LSU by 7, without the luck LSU by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 42 yds made · 68% expected
  • D. Ramos, 52 yds made · 52% expected
  • N. Hauser, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
  • D. Ramos, 46 yds missed · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: LSU 6 for 45 yards, Clemson 6 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:30 Holding on LSU, 10 yards +1% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q1 8:24 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLEM +0.7 pts
Q1 8:04 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yards +5% LSU +2.7 pts
Q1 7:30 Illegal Formation on LSU, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% CLEM +1.6 pts
Q1 3:05 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LSU +1.0 pts
Q3 12:42 Holding on LSU, 10 yards +4% CLEM +1.5 pts
Q3 9:07 Pass Interference on Clemson, 2 yards +3% LSU +1.1 pts
Q3 1:03 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yards +12% LSU +3.1 pts
Q3 1:03 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q3 0:12 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yards 0% LSU +1.6 pts
Q4 4:14 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LSU +0.4 pts
Q4 3:22 Holding on LSU, 10 yards +1% CLEM +0.6 pts

When it happened

Clemson’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Clemson was ahead in it, below while LSU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:51 LSU fumbled and Clemson recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CLEM LSU: Punt
2 Q1 8:04 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% LSU LSU: Punt
3 Q2 6:13 Clemson converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% CLEM CLEM: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:24 LSU converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% LSU LSU: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:32 D. Ramos missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 8 of 14 from 45+ before +9% CLEM LSU: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:03 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on LSU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% LSU LSU: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:18 Clemson converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% CLEM CLEM: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 9:02 Clemson was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% LSU CLEM: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

LSU 89% · Clemson 11%

Final margin
LSU by 7
Luck in points
1.8 for Clemson
Luck-adjusted margin
LSU by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
LSU 59% · Clemson 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · LSU · Clemson

More from Week 1 2025

Every week 1 game, 2025