ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Clemson Tigers: luck and expected wins

Clemson is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 9th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Clemson wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ LSU	L 10–51	0%	0
Week 2	vs Georgia Southern	W 22–7	64%	+36
Week 3	vs North Carolina	W 28–20	70%	+30
Week 4	@ California	W 24–10	73%	+27

Wk 1 0 @ LSU

Wk 2 +36 vs GASO

Wk 3 +30 vs UNC

Wk 4 +27 @ CAL

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Clemson win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Miami	Miami by 15.8	16%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Charleston Southern	Clemson by 37.3	99%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Virginia Tech	Clemson by 3.7	59%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Florida State	Florida State by 3.2	42%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Syracuse	Clemson by 2.8	57%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Georgia Tech	Clemson by 6.7	65%
Week 12 · Nov 20	at Duke	Duke by 10.4	27%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs South Carolina	Clemson by 0.3	51%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Clemson’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.16	+3.3
Pre-snap flags	+0.05	+5.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Clemson takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 12	@ Louisville	W 20–19	19%	+81
2025 Week 14	@ South Carolina	W 28–14	47%	+53
2026 Week 2	vs Georgia Southern	W 22–7	64%	+36
2025 Week 11	vs Florida State	W 24–10	67%	+33
2026 Week 3	vs North Carolina	W 28–20	70%	+30

Unluckiest losses

Losses Clemson would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	vs Duke	L 45–46	78%	−78
2025 Week 3	@ Georgia Tech	L 21–24	67%	−67
2025 Week 4	vs Syracuse	L 21–34	66%	−66
2025 Week 1	vs LSU	L 10–17	41%	−41
2025 Week 8	vs SMU	L 24–35	35%	−35

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	7–5	7.8	−0.8	1–3	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs LSU	L 10–17	41%	−41
Week 2	vs Troy	W 27–16	79%	+21
Week 3	@ Georgia Tech	L 21–24	67%	−67
Week 4	vs Syracuse	L 21–34	66%	−66
Week 6	@ North Carolina	W 38–10	87%	+13
Week 7	@ Boston College	W 41–10	99%	+1
Week 8	vs SMU	L 24–35	35%	−35
Week 10	vs Duke	L 45–46	78%	−78
Week 11	vs Florida State	W 24–10	67%	+33
Week 12	@ Louisville	W 20–19	19%	+81
Week 13	vs Furman	W 45–10	100%	0
Week 14	@ South Carolina	W 28–14	47%	+53
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl	vs Penn State	L 10–22	22%	−22