luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Georgia Southern at Clemson, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Clemson beat Georgia Southern 22–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Clemson was a 91% favorite.

Final

Georgia Southern Eagles 7
Clemson Tigers 22

September 12, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Closing line: Clemson −20.5

Luck index +36 Clemson lucky · −36 Georgia Southern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 4, Clemson wins 6.

  1. 1 GASO 30 CLEM 7
  2. 2 GASO 37 CLEM 24
  3. 3 GASO 24 CLEM 16
  4. 4 GASO 16 CLEM 13
  5. 5 GASO 13 CLEM 15
  6. 6 GASO 17 CLEM 23
  7. 7 GASO 0 CLEM 10
  8. 8 GASO 19 CLEM 31
  9. 9 GASO 3 CLEM 20
  10. 10 GASO 6 CLEM 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia Southern wins 36% of them, Clemson 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia Southern by 17+6.5%
Georgia Southern by 9–1610.8%
Georgia Southern by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Clemson by 1–821.9%
Clemson by 9–1619.8%
Clemson by 17+21.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to Clemson: the final margin was Clemson by 15, without the luck Clemson by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 20 yds made · 94% expected
  • N. Hauser, 34 yds made · 82% expected
  • N. Hauser, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Bryant, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
  • N. Hauser, 50 yds made · 55% expected
  • N. Hauser, 49 yds made · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia Southern 8 for 77 yards, Clemson 9 for 85 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:48 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 4 yards +1% CLEM +1.0 pts
Q1 11:44 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GASO +0.7 pts
Q1 8:36 False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLEM +1.9 pts
Q1 7:03 Unnecessary Roughness on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +1% CLEM +1.6 pts
Q1 2:43 Face Mask on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +1% CLEM +1.6 pts
Q2 13:04 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards +1% GASO +2.1 pts
Q2 10:51 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 10 yards 0% CLEM +0.9 pts
Q2 9:43 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards 0% GASO +0.6 pts
Q2 1:33 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards +1% GASO +0.9 pts
Q2 1:28 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GASO +0.4 pts
Q2 0:47 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards 0% GASO +0.4 pts
Q3 9:03 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yards +1% GASO +1.1 pts
Q3 8:14 False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLEM +1.5 pts
Q3 5:55 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 13 yards 0% CLEM +0.8 pts
Q4 11:19 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yards +2% GASO +1.0 pts
Q4 6:43 Delay of Game on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GASO +1.0 pts
Q4 5:54 Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CLEM +2.4 pts

When it happened

Clemson’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Clemson was ahead in it, below while Georgia Southern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:06 Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +1% GASO CLEM: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:22 Clemson converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +1% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
3 Q3 13:23 Clemson converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% CLEM CLEM: Punt
4 Q3 9:19 Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +1% GASO GASO: Punt
5 Q3 9:03 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% GASO GASO: Punt
6 Q4 12:03 Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% GASO CLEM: Punt
7 Q4 11:19 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% GASO GASO: Missed field goal
8 Q4 10:25 Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +1% CLEM GASO: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia Southern 29% · Clemson 71%

Final margin
Clemson by 15
Luck in points
10.7 for Clemson
Luck-adjusted margin
Clemson by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Georgia Southern 36% · Clemson 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Georgia Southern · Clemson

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