Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Duke at Illinois, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Duke beat Illinois 31–27, but the replays lean toward Illinois: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Duke.
Before kickoff Illinois was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:38 left): Illinois was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 15 points of win probability to Duke.
Final
 Duke Blue Devils | 31 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Duke very lucky · −75 Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duke wins 2, Illinois wins 8.
- 1 DUKE 17 ILL 3
- 2 DUKE 17 ILL 14
- 3 DUKE 13 ILL 16
- 4 DUKE 28 ILL 33
- 5 DUKE 16 ILL 24
- 6 DUKE 14 ILL 26
- 7 DUKE 7 ILL 21
- 8 DUKE 7 ILL 24
- 9 DUKE 9 ILL 31
- 10 DUKE 17 ILL 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duke wins 25% of them, Illinois 75%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duke by 17+ | 3.1% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 28.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Moczulski, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- E. Moczulski, 62 yds missed · 37% expected
- E. Moczulski, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- C. Salas, 39 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Duke 9 for 82 yards, Illinois 7 for 86 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:47 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | +3% DUKE +2.0 pts |
| Q1 9:23 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | +1% DUKE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:49 | Face Mask on Illinois, 12 yards | +3% DUKE +1.5 pts |
| Q1 3:37 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +1% ILL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:56 | Holding on Illinois, 25 yards | +4% DUKE +2.3 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 15 yards | +3% ILL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:49 | Pass Interference on Duke, 3 yards | +3% ILL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 14:27 | Face Mask on Illinois, 15 yards | +4% DUKE +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:38 | Offside on Illinois, 4 yards · pre-snap | +6% DUKE +2.0 pts |
| Q3 6:21 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | +6% DUKE +1.8 pts |
| Q3 2:28 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ILL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:47 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +5% ILL +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:26 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +5% ILL +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:59 | Illegal Block on Duke, 10 yards | +4% ILL +1.1 pts |
| Q4 13:53 | Pass Interference on Duke, 14 yards | 0% ILL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:41 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILL +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 11:38 | Offside on Illinois, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 6:21 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 5:13 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% DUKE | ILL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:38 | Illinois was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +15% DUKE | ILL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 6:45 | Duke fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:21 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% ILL | DUKE: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:37 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +12% DUKE | ILL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:54 | Illinois was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +10% DUKE | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duke 57% · Illinois 43%
- Final margin
- Duke by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Duke 25% · Illinois 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Duke · 
Illinois
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner