Week 2 2026 · September 11, 2026
Rutgers at Boston College, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Boston College beat Rutgers 28–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Boston College wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Boston College was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:29 left): Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to Boston College.
Final
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 21 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Boston College lucky · −55 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rutgers wins 5, Boston College wins 5.
- 1 RUTG 42 BC 14
- 2 RUTG 24 BC 6
- 3 RUTG 34 BC 21
- 4 RUTG 28 BC 21
- 5 RUTG 34 BC 31
- 6 RUTG 38 BC 40
- 7 RUTG 24 BC 28
- 8 RUTG 17 BC 27
- 9 RUTG 35 BC 48
- 10 RUTG 6 BC 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rutgers wins 55% of them, Boston College 45%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boston College by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rutgers by 17+ | 18.1% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 10.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Lombardo, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Lombardo, 46 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Rutgers 3 for 25 yards, Boston College 2 for 13 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Snap on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +1% BC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:15 | Offside on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:27 | Illegal Block on Boston College, 8 yards | +2% RUTG +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:30 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +2% BC +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:08 | Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% BC | RUTG: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 11:18 | Boston College converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% BC | BC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 11:28 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 9:34 | Rutgers fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 0:29 | Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +13% BC | RUTG: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 12:53 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% RUTG | BC: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:11 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% BC | RUTG: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:56 | Rutgers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rutgers 23% · Boston College 77%
- Final margin
- Boston College by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boston College by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Rutgers 55% · Boston College 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Rutgers · 
Boston College
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner