Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Penn State at Temple, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Penn State beat Temple 27–9, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Penn State wins 5 of 10.
Penn State won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Temple it would win 95% of the time; with this day’s form, 53%. The numbers
Before kickoff Penn State was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 27 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Penn State lucky · −47 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penn State wins 5, Temple wins 5.
- 1 PSU 30 TEM 5
- 2 PSU 31 TEM 14
- 3 PSU 28 TEM 17
- 4 PSU 10 TEM 3
- 5 PSU 31 TEM 29
- 6 PSU 14 TEM 16
- 7 PSU 14 TEM 18
- 8 PSU 10 TEM 18
- 9 PSU 14 TEM 28
- 10 PSU 24 TEM 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Penn State won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Temple it would win 95% of the time; with this day’s form, 53%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Penn State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.41 | +0.06 | better by 0.36 |
| Penn State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.06 | worse by 0.04 |
| Temple offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.11 | worse by 0.02 |
| Temple defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.41 | +0.14 | worse by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Penn State wins 53% of them, Temple 47%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penn State by 17+ | 15.7% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 16.9% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Temple by 17+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 33 yds missed · 87% expected
- C. Hardin, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Barker, 31 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Hardin, 52 yds blocked · 50% expected
- R. Barker, 39 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Penn State 4 for 20 yards, Temple 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:48 | Face Mask on Temple, 10 yards | +1% PSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 13:54 | Illegal Forward Pass on Penn State, 5 yards | 0% TEM +0.3 pts |
| Q1 11:41 | Delay of Game on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:58 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yards | +1% PSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:34 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Chop Block on Temple, 15 yards | +2% PSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 5:11 | Ineligible Downfield on Penn State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TEM +3.0 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.3 pts |
| Q4 8:45 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yards | 0% PSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:11 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +2% TEM | PSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:03 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% PSU | TEM: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 11:58 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 7:14 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% TEM | PSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:06 | Chop Block on Temple, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:37 | Penn State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:46 | C. Hardin had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 50% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +1% PSU | TEM: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 8:25 | Penn State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penn State 100% · Temple 0%
- Final margin
- Penn State by 18
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 16.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Penn State 53% · Temple 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Penn State · 
Temple
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner